Us Politics · resolved market
Will Xi visit the US by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x576ddfc4a6f4641d33af22a70c5c533f6ff52d1b0bf3bf127ebdc30c7f573b85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…4f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,896$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df4…fb3dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,681$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d6…5cc7backed Yes | 3c | 3,379$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 3,138$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170e…1a1abacked Yes | 1c | 3,044$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,844$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 2,442$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,154$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 1c | 1,286$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fda…e430backed Yes | 2c | 1,121$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 2c | 1,095$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8d…7367backed Yes | 2c | 899.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 8c | 842.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 2c | 832.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 2c | 832.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd689…dc54backed Yes | 8c | 798.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 6c | 777.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 2c | 583.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 2c | 583.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…9378backed Yes | 2c | 540.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed Yes | 2c | 495.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d92…2861backed Yes | 3c | 484.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 3c | 413.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes | 4c | 404.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fb…2bd4backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 9c | 339.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…5eb7backed Yes | 7c | 303.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cd…9d3cbacked Yes | 6c | 276.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +255.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…9adfbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a96…6a34backed Yes | 8c | 138.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34eb…cafbbacked Yes | 16c | 133.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 80c | 99.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.