TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,581,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,573,443

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,581,361 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 289 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc6ed…6609backed Yes8c215,533$17,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,482.9350%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f11…be8dbacked Yes8c57,633$4,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,335.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes8c20,748$1,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,585.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x517a…6491backed Yes6c16,222$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.33520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-70.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf82…fdb6backed Yes8c15,121$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes7c14,643$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.93560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-19.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c14,253$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.6919011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9416…7123backed Yes8c14,170$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e0…c29bbacked Yes16c13,001$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.25922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-64.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9987…98a9backed Yes8c12,786$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No78c12,658$9,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,836.723514.3%5 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-81%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x349a…14e8backed Yes7c12,397$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No36c11,441$4,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,377.812853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa758…0c98backed Yes64c11,312$7,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,214.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Yes19c9,202$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa776…a17bbacked Yes7c8,809$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a29…46e7backed Yes7c8,501$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.43742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-31.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc741…880abacked Yes2c8,382$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x285e…3cfcbacked Yes42c8,236$3,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,480.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc529…4f2cbacked Yes22c8,200$1,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,790.861250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes9c7,213$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No71c7,030$4,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,035.410426.9%28 W · 76 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-25.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes1c5,719$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.985320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes3c5,699$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.176737.3%25 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f9b…0029backed Yes9c5,595$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick29cpaid-80.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5844…aa7ebacked Yes4c5,152$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes7c4,826$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-88.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab7e…2a96backed Yes7c4,672$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.281040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78e4…f252backed Yes8c4,582$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a45…dd1dbacked Yes8c4,384$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes2c4,254$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.89200%0 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b3…f954backed Yes8c4,169$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7430…7376backed Yes35c4,000$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c3,784$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.82348.8%3 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-88.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes8c3,333$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.981216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-76.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf191…09f6backed Yes9c3,299$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes55c3,295$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.422147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb41a…1935backed Yes14c3,244$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5282…e207backed Yes34c3,204$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.6230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f4f…463cbacked No46c3,176$1,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,723.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048a…635cbacked Yes18c3,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b32…3f5fbacked Yes7c2,930$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe301…f5c6backed Yes65c2,888$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,877.55540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c2,839$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.81,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a2a…034cbacked Yes2c2,746$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa271…2727backed Yes0c2,699$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.42290%0 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd65f…c498backed Yes8c2,689$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb99…ca41backed Yes8c2,625$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e2…9b0cbacked Yes8c2,615$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90dd…14e3backed Yes2c2,597$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0760%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6349…2a82backed No18c2,429$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,990.531030%3 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick16cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67a3…7eecbacked Yes4c2,366$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…d8aebacked No47c2,118$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.78944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd8a…23debacked Yes2c2,040$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.44110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked No74c1,854$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.34560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick74cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc15e…ab86backed Yes2c1,755$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes7c1,754$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.451030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69ee…2037backed Yes11c1,700$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf599…31a9backed Yes17c1,675$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.930%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3419…58f3backed Yes2c1,572$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5980%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff7…87a4backed No79c1,557$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.714242.9%18 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3461…4629backed Yes64c1,520$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.43per pick63cpaid-74.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc6a3…5e28backed Yes30c1,501$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes2c1,460$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.970%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No31c1,437$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.013718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf191…06e5backed Yes2c1,407$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7870%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c1,399$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3218311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes74c1,334$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.41277.4%2 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-86.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf847…5bc9backed Yes8c1,331$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes8c1,253$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-63.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fec…c965backed No41c1,212$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.63955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-11.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4c5d…8d58backed Yes8c1,210$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…4ea5backed Yes4c1,206$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06d6…5260backed Yes1c1,200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae28…1ebdbacked Yes6c1,198$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bfe…c677backed Yes2c1,188$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3460%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e1…5baebacked Yes4c1,163$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes2c1,045$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.98100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8122…cac1backed Yes10c1,043$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe000…d7dbbacked No27c1,036$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.73250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+86.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecf9…94d7backed Yes2c1,026$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed No68c1,011$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.082832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd281…f7bdbacked No28c1,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7201136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x657a…8563backed Yes10c1,000$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9779…9378backed Yes1c901.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc438…3ae6backed No50c873.28$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.73757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x434a…5218backed Yes3c862.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92a0…5218backed Yes2c840$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.08170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9190…294dbacked Yes2c813.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No18c808.76$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.8540712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc727…a011backed Yes4c802.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x105d…7cb1backed Yes8c797.43$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce15…cbb7backed No68c793.96$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.27757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf575…1602backed No49c760.03$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No18c757.47$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.134531.1%14 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.19per pick13cpaid+143.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9804…6896backed Yes28c757$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes4c731.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.82450%12 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5db…d774backed Yes2c720$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9270%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6c2…1b0dbacked No70c715.26$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes6c707.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6280%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.