Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0075adde2a4008c7dd9ae0b4df08260b2d6598be34ce0e9cca8495717ad69fbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 5c | 2,754$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.85 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4499…d102backed Yes | 13c | 1,538$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.81 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 7c | 1,527$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 8c | 1,029$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 4c | 978.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 911$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 754.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Yes | 19c | 753.63$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c7…0f6dbacked Yes | 15c | 743.2$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 9c | 670.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 5c | 621.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 8c | 599.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 6c | 537.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 7c | 428.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15e…ab86backed Yes | 8c | 388.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 15c | 349.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf31…a155backed Yes | 13c | 340.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…9378backed Yes | 5c | 298.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 6c | 289.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 7c | 288.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe67d…8180backed Yes | 4c | 282.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 278.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa469…e73fbacked Yes | 7c | 278.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…9940backed Yes | 4c | 238.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…5dc5backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…94d7backed Yes | 11c | 193.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 11c | 188$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…eea3backed Yes | 6c | 164.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked Yes | 13c | 148.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 9c | 113.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbd…cc5bbacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…66c8backed Yes | 14c | 89.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 68c | 36.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.