Venezuela · resolved market
Maduro visits the U.S. by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3186c63e4814cad29023575f1a4c483f20a5d6539f7e97e8b8af46898791776a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 2c | 6,845$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,509$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 4c | 3,150$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,659$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 3c | 1,997$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 3c | 1,800$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5592…278cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,517$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…9725backed Yes | 2c | 1,003$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 966$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 905$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 1c | 832.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 3c | 622.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570d…a068backed Yes | 3c | 549.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 3c | 533.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 13c | 500$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6e…d3c9backed Yes | 3c | 499.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 3c | 449.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…55efbacked Yes | 3c | 449.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde33…3487backed Yes | 3c | 412.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 324.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 4c | 299.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 3c | 299.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…66c8backed Yes | 3c | 299.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked Yes | 6c | 194.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.