Us Politics · resolved market
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53700c2b2fa65e0a3775c757d0c705be4bee8c265c49d283ef50a0dfb3bf8894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,412,916
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,269,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,412,916 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 9c | 147,366$13,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,313.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950f…1e9dbacked Yes | 11c | 86,932$9,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,720.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…b1fabacked No | 79c | 47,433$37,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,960.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa988…5fd1backed Yes | 21c | 47,433$9,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,960.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5c…1b1ebacked Yes | 4c | 21,928$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 20,120$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.31 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 5c | 15,904$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.63 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…677ebacked Yes | 8c | 15,758$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.44 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 2c | 13,730$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.73 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 4c | 13,618$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.01 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf4…b8e3backed Yes | 16c | 11,908$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,928.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c21…e775backed Yes | 7c | 10,500$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 9,506$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 9,380$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.03 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x690a…2ea7backed Yes | 2c | 8,896$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…356cbacked Yes | 11c | 8,510$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 1c | 8,507$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked Yes | 5c | 8,436$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.84 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes | 3c | 8,363$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 4c | 7,710$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.29 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Yes | 2c | 7,702$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…24e8backed Yes | 9c | 7,613$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…8757backed Yes | 8c | 7,416$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 5,954$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7134…8febbacked Yes | 2c | 5,741$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.88 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…5495backed Yes | 4c | 5,144$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a20…ab28backed Yes | 1c | 5,135$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,093$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,079$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1df…7d7ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,036$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1582…5a10backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60a…c9bdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,949$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…e10abacked Yes | 19c | 4,772$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…81c0backed Yes | 8c | 4,720$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…3170backed Yes | 5c | 4,533$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 4,458$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…0f1fbacked Yes | 10c | 4,229$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +205.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…245dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,039$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…7c57backed Yes | 1c | 3,774$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,764$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…04d8backed Yes | 0c | 3,659$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5708…1d51backed Yes | 2c | 3,656$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed Yes | 4c | 3,637$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 10c | 3,500$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.3 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 3,478$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2af6…af83backed Yes | 2c | 3,337$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 3c | 3,288$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…1221backed Yes | 2c | 3,206$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d20…dd60backed Yes | 8c | 3,187$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb9…ca1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,182$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 3,125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea70…7e85backed Yes | 2c | 3,030$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 1c | 3,024$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,971$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbafb…c3b0backed Yes | 1c | 2,876$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 17c | 2,801$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.87 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddcb…65dabacked Yes | 22c | 2,794$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed Yes | 4c | 2,753$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,748$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b65…b1afbacked Yes | 6c | 2,726$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 41c | 2,678$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.57 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,675$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 2,658$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf325…26ecbacked Yes | 2c | 2,601$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…6a63backed Yes | 2c | 2,600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…7c38backed Yes | 9c | 2,584$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…f7bdbacked Yes | 6c | 2,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 9c | 2,470$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.63 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d4…b6e5backed Yes | 1c | 2,381$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d62…edb7backed Yes | 2c | 2,354$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 4c | 2,318$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe55e…17a9backed Yes | 2c | 2,200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…d16cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…e908backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 76c | 1,990$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.03 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1446…0a30backed Yes | 5c | 1,900$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed Yes | 1c | 1,896$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,891$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 1,839$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…faeebacked Yes | 2c | 1,807$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9131…4c37backed Yes | 1c | 1,754$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe5…91debacked Yes | 2c | 1,644$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed Yes | 1c | 1,634$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf10…557ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,595$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2519…99dabacked Yes | 2c | 1,578$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,571$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…00cabacked Yes | 2c | 1,570$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd69…f53abacked Yes | 6c | 1,535$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +424.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f49…231dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,534$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfa…958abacked Yes | 1c | 1,476$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…be70backed Yes | 2c | 1,446$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd500…74e6backed Yes | 2c | 1,429$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d3…1d5cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,395$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…19d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,371$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0289…e141backed Yes | 1c | 1,357$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…577bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,345$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282a…90b6backed Yes | 1c | 1,327$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fc…7a3bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,318$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.