TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,412,916
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,269,910

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,412,916 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes9c147,366$13,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,313.891010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x950f…1e9dbacked Yes11c86,932$9,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,720.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa355…b1fabacked No79c47,433$37,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,960.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa988…5fd1backed Yes21c47,433$9,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,960.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b5c…1b1ebacked Yes4c21,928$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c20,120$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.3133313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes5c15,904$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.635111.8%6 W · 45 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15a9…677ebacked Yes8c15,758$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.442412.5%3 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-48.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes2c13,730$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.735010%5 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-82.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes4c13,618$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.012123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf4…b8e3backed Yes16c11,908$1,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c21…e775backed Yes7c10,500$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c9,506$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.271343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c9,380$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.031,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x690a…2ea7backed Yes2c8,896$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.09425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-53.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4929…356cbacked Yes11c8,510$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes1c8,507$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.14120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked Yes5c8,436$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.843043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes3c8,363$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes4c7,710$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.29610%0 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x486f…b325backed Yes2c7,702$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe962…24e8backed Yes9c7,613$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee1…8757backed Yes8c7,416$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c5,954$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.19765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7134…8febbacked Yes2c5,741$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.881414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x994b…5495backed Yes4c5,144$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a20…ab28backed Yes1c5,135$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c5,093$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8113714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes2c5,079$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1df…7d7ebacked Yes2c5,036$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1582…5a10backed Yes1c5,000$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf60a…c9bdbacked Yes1c4,949$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf020…e10abacked Yes19c4,772$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$894.5640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…81c0backed Yes8c4,720$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe931…3170backed Yes5c4,533$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c4,458$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.48787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x927c…0f1fbacked Yes10c4,229$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.32742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+205.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e80…245dbacked Yes2c4,039$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e22…7c57backed Yes1c3,774$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked Yes2c3,764$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.022814.3%4 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-76.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb94f…04d8backed Yes0c3,659$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5708…1d51backed Yes2c3,656$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes4c3,637$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130110%0 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes10c3,500$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.32213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c3,478$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.235710.5%6 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2af6…af83backed Yes2c3,337$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes3c3,288$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.54254%1 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7d9…1221backed Yes2c3,206$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d20…dd60backed Yes8c3,187$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb9…ca1bbacked Yes1c3,182$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c3,125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.55372.7%1 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea70…7e85backed Yes2c3,030$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes1c3,024$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.98128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes2c2,971$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.154311.6%5 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+61.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbafb…c3b0backed Yes1c2,876$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes17c2,801$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.876526.2%17 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddcb…65dabacked Yes22c2,794$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e51…9531backed Yes4c2,753$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes1c2,748$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.76110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b65…b1afbacked Yes6c2,726$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No41c2,678$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.5716535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed Yes1c2,675$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0190%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes2c2,658$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.82419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf325…26ecbacked Yes2c2,601$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecab…6a63backed Yes2c2,600$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-55.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70d9…7c38backed Yes9c2,584$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.36520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd281…f7bdbacked Yes6c2,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-82.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes9c2,470$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.635343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x80d4…b6e5backed Yes1c2,381$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d62…edb7backed Yes2c2,354$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes4c2,318$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.71140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe55e…17a9backed Yes2c2,200$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0e…d16cbacked Yes2c2,180$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes2c2,100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.13813.2%5 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+47.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9400…4f20backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17fa…e908backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No76c1,990$1,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.034320.9%9 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1446…0a30backed Yes5c1,900$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbba8…f383backed Yes1c1,896$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.14520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-57.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes2c1,891$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.971816.7%3 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+84.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes5c1,839$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7314624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2acb…faeebacked Yes2c1,807$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9131…4c37backed Yes1c1,754$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefe5…91debacked Yes2c1,644$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff05…fad7backed Yes1c1,634$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.58293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-86.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf10…557ebacked Yes2c1,595$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2519…99dabacked Yes2c1,578$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c1,571$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20736.8%5 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac53…00cabacked Yes2c1,570$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.11714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-64.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd69…f53abacked Yes6c1,535$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+424.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f49…231dbacked Yes2c1,534$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfa…958abacked Yes1c1,476$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c5…be70backed Yes2c1,446$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd500…74e6backed Yes2c1,429$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x44d3…1d5cbacked Yes2c1,395$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85ac…19d2backed Yes2c1,371$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0289…e141backed Yes1c1,357$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x528f…577bbacked Yes2c1,345$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x282a…90b6backed Yes1c1,327$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4fc…7a3bbacked Yes12c1,318$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.