Ukraine · resolved market
Trump meets Xi, Putin, and Kim by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x366c142bb9d4b32000908b2ce56123d52683e7fe9637c0be1a556eb90bf58d31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe702…d3cdbacked Yes | 24c | 7,851$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,732$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 3,812$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.59 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 7c | 2,196$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.72 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 23c | 1,544$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 1,342$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 3c | 831.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 792$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15e…ab86backed Yes | 3c | 675.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…94d7backed Yes | 3c | 623.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 11c | 609.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 2c | 554.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 11c | 525.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 3c | 484.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349a…6b12backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 415.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 23c | 344.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.54 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +7.5wins | +0.44per pick | 38cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…eeccbacked Yes | 16c | 302.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6c…3647backed Yes | 9c | 301.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 12c | 299.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x168d…fd54backed Yes | 21c | 284.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342e…7e88backed Yes | 15c | 221.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b9…ec17backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 6c | 210.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…7b02backed Yes | 15c | 203.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 20c | 201.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe01d…c11fbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…e9b0backed Yes | 17c | 180.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a90…97bdbacked Yes | 14c | 167$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf76…a922backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…9c5cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…0bccbacked Yes | 11c | 97.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1b…f9c1backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 13c | 79.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.