Ukraine · resolved market
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf89eceb4c0e7c5da6a2caff35b73554ca0498fbc9e109380f2ce6fe4a31b6c5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $209,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 3c | 10,059$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.54 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 12c | 7,176$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.02 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 19c | 6,614$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.13 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 8c | 4,919$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.71 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 4,787$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.38 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…f233backed Yes | 2c | 4,580$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.63 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 4,226$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.13 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,962$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.35 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 0c | 3,573$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 77c | 3,331$2,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 2,567$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.16 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 16c | 2,377$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.8 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec55…a300backed Yes | 33c | 2,367$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes | 7c | 2,363$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.46 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,875$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes | 12c | 1,842$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.91 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 75c | 1,776$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.92 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 5c | 1,775$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…1f85backed Yes | 10c | 1,747$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 4c | 1,606$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15e…ab86backed Yes | 4c | 1,572$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 7c | 1,501$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.89 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 4c | 1,469$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,387$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 8c | 1,370$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.95 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 10c | 1,300$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.94 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 13c | 1,280$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.51 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 5c | 1,273$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,263$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 4c | 1,255$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 2c | 1,163$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8c20backed Yes | 9c | 1,135$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 3c | 1,133$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,107$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 8c | 1,081$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 5c | 1,018$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…9378backed Yes | 3c | 1,013$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 5c | 999.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 4c | 976.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 949.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -95.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 940$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 5c | 933$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 930.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 6c | 918$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 9c | 916.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 79c | 900$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…9940backed Yes | 3c | 899$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 879.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 4c | 868.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 8c | 848.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 8c | 842.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -89%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 72c | 834.28$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.03 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 64c | 820$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.4 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 7c | 805.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 3c | 802$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 4c | 793.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 19c | 786.25$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.04 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked No | 72c | 766.05$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.87 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7cdfbacked Yes | 4c | 730.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…bff2backed Yes | 14c | 694.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fc9fbacked Yes | 23c | 691.56$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 11c | 649.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -7.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb81c…1ec4backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 3c | 570.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 12c | 525$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 19c | 486.75$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…d774backed Yes | 4c | 482.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 5c | 470.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 7c | 450$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…857abacked Yes | 15c | 444.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 34c | 429.84$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.45 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 426.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…04c5backed Yes | 3c | 401.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes | 4c | 393.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 11c | 390.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 5c | 390.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 58c | 389.51$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 5c | 380$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 5c | 354.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed No | 67c | 350$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…c23bbacked Yes | 5c | 349$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 69c | 336.58$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes | 5c | 334.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 332.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…b3f7backed Yes | 5c | 327.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6225…5eb6backed Yes | 4c | 316.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…8deebacked Yes | 5c | 309.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 4c | 293.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…547abacked Yes | 5c | 293.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a1…d4a6backed Yes | 5c | 270.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…560dbacked Yes | 12c | 268.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 6c | 266.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 12c | 258.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 32c | 255$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 12c | 242.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked Yes | 5c | 241.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.