Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia invade Finland in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a5edf9d6f7813a5289f8e410c5a033abbd52576fc1a2d44aa34f2a4c86303c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $199,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $252,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 7,360$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.24 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 3,502$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 3c | 3,238$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,913$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 2c | 2,720$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,573$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 3c | 2,555$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 2c | 2,340$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 2,323$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 3c | 1,700$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 1c | 1,670$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,649$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 2c | 1,540$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,540$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…9940backed Yes | 2c | 1,440$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,333$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,318$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c32…7102backed Yes | 1c | 1,231$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15e…ab86backed Yes | 2c | 1,210$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 4c | 1,020$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 1c | 999.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…25b4backed Yes | 3c | 897.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 882.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…94d7backed Yes | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6e…d3c9backed Yes | 1c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c1…7e40backed Yes | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…9378backed Yes | 1c | 729.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b1…c907backed Yes | 3c | 709.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 2c | 604.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9190…294dbacked Yes | 2c | 580$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…9511backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…e2f1backed Yes | 4c | 366.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ba…f14fbacked Yes | 3c | 357.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 5c | 203.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.