TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,238,681
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,257,645

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,238,681 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 723 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc001…d003backed Yes38c105,871$40,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,230.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf53b…9c48backed No62c105,871$65,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,230.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc9d…96c8backed Yes37c87,115$32,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,232.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x642c…cd5dbacked No63c87,115$54,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,232.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39f2…d0a5backed Yes28c53,787$15,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,060.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba0b…7888backed No72c53,787$38,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,060.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No64c48,673$31,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,663.184852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac22…5442backed Yes26c36,145$9,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,464.3680%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No80c34,838$27,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,019.34459.1%26 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No70c17,552$12,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,265.9114456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3037…3e7ebacked Yes42c17,311$7,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,293.72616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-76.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x904f…50c6backed Yes11c16,741$1,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,825.854515.6%7 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No69c14,568$10,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,513.263461.8%21 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+34.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No72c12,043$8,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,346.789037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed Yes16c11,768$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.74511.1%5 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes16c10,270$1,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,602.8610812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes31c9,609$2,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,957.6126835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes34c9,531$3,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,273.12825%7 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-52.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3560…1b93backed No79c9,000$7,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+208.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked Yes26c8,654$2,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,222.162365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x87d6…95e6backed No71c8,647$6,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,504.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes40c7,712$3,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,079.431216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-65.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaf84…703cbacked Yes40c7,172$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,864.841850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9b…9dc7backed Yes34c7,159$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,464.751643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31ea…0140backed Yes33c7,127$2,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,344.021650%8 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+84.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfacd…9109backed No79c7,100$5,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4603100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No70c6,730$4,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,985.451662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes9c6,072$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.7725311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes13c6,010$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.25825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes12c5,277$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.09175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-89%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc1a8…8f5ebacked Yes29c5,257$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes33c5,095$1,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,670.743638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked No67c4,894$3,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,625.842748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x312b…cafebacked No62c4,827$3,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.341163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No79c4,735$3,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.351258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes24c4,498$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.067356.2%41 W · 32 L+14.4wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed No67c4,343$2,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.352774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No71c4,283$3,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.527761%47 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x016b…c8f0backed Yes26c4,269$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked Yes29c4,227$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.283336.4%12 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd67d…9cafbacked Yes37c3,500$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked No67c3,476$2,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.751747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2884…d0c3backed No65c3,439$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.915356.6%30 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked No62c3,111$1,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.921752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52e9…67c3backed Yes27c3,100$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8371040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Yes35c2,912$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.421758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5a…aba4backed Yes42c2,875$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No77c2,828$2,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.4524258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa198…106abacked Yes45c2,800$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.991241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-15.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0bc2…4814backed Yes37c2,790$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.21520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+122.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb79…6400backed Yes29c2,717$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d84…086bbacked No76c2,620$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b8c…a06ebacked Yes39c2,588$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes13c2,577$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.93128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-79.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c2,577$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.55327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked Yes38c2,500$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.02911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick41cpaid-85.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e38…61b5backed Yes39c2,497$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes29c2,460$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.962962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes14c2,326$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.3314121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf21…7482backed Yes29c2,297$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-76.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7720…da92backed Yes10c2,197$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.780%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cd7…0643backed Yes41c2,156$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8801118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-68.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aaa…f8c9backed Yes28c2,001$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.39520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-73.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5601850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No74c2,000$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.611266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes15c1,995$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.8480%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes17c1,993$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.1310137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes35c1,932$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes36c1,931$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-59.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f1c…1cedbacked Yes24c1,896$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No62c1,810$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.25988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+51.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No62c1,763$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.21770.6%12 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.31per pick39cpaid+44.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No66c1,745$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.3823435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa51…a6dcbacked No79c1,665$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x213c…92eebacked No72c1,658$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.86560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No70c1,636$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.8525528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes14c1,624$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.69138.5%35 W · 56 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+67%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No60c1,573$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.0535341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d42…9b05backed Yes37c1,566$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No72c1,561$1,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.814533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-45.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78f0…c63cbacked No79c1,558$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.333100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8662…c94fbacked Yes5c1,541$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.83160%0 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b87…274cbacked Yes21c1,541$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.81241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid-18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes4c1,482$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.661154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes31c1,480$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4551942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No76c1,479$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.92343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes35c1,430$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.4215125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes26c1,426$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.084231%13 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ca…00e3backed Yes45c1,425$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64730%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x908b…1f85backed Yes31c1,352$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.741050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes24c1,305$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.6811040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked No73c1,303$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.4560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Yes35c1,266$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.051822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d1…33b8backed Yes27c1,244$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-52.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes25c1,212$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fd…ec0cbacked Yes18c1,210$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.812722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb31…e5afbacked Yes27c1,209$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes36c1,200$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4305820.7%12 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes40c1,195$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.943839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-30.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked No80c1,121$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.58988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.