Middle East · resolved market
Iran nuclear test in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1459f53fc6597b90d8de377f9abbeeadbb4c9f6237c203b8ac1738680ce68a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $204,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $204,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,132$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e23…5411backed Yes | 10c | 7,411$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…a5bebacked Yes | 0c | 6,668$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 8c | 6,534$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.91 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 4,301$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.03 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f51ebacked Yes | 12c | 4,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…1f72backed Yes | 11c | 3,678$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 11c | 2,553$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.4 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,419$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,091$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.08 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 3c | 1,637$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 12c | 1,593$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.28 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,549$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 3c | 1,524$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d29…95ffbacked Yes | 11c | 1,516$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,345$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…b1d4backed Yes | 15c | 1,337$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 3c | 1,245$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 2c | 1,239$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 3c | 1,059$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.68 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…9940backed Yes | 3c | 950$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5816…3c5abacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20b…8da0backed Yes | 3c | 861.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…9378backed Yes | 3c | 850$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 13c | 816.49$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 2c | 804.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc15e…ab86backed Yes | 3c | 765$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ace…cc74backed Yes | 3c | 755$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 666$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes | 13c | 648$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa619…efc8backed Yes | 15c | 648$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 4c | 600.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes | 19c | 550$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb8…6708backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22d…6e49backed Yes | 11c | 363.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.29per pick | 35cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…10f7backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 6c | 299.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c0…6867backed Yes | 12c | 283.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34f5…bd92backed Yes | 11c | 271.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 77c | 266.34$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…129bbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…e140backed Yes | 33c | 240.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked Yes | 13c | 238.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x673e…eb95backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…61d6backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…c5f6backed Yes | 15c | 189.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1b…dbdebacked Yes | 11c | 186.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 13c | 182.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c0…1404backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf0…de4abacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 17c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…0978backed No | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +8.1wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28f3…2b61backed Yes | 10c | 109.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…016dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…1d26backed Yes | 12c | 91.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…48bfbacked Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0db…e549backed Yes | 19c | 68.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…135dbacked No | 79c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +101%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.