AI · resolved market
OpenAI acquired in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c674a9cbd6dc42ea7fd1f01742ec04ce68fd65d41a2ee0cc194aab1a0dd01ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,540$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 3c | 2,056$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,790$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee6e…a37fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,618$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…b561backed Yes | 1c | 1,538$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +198.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15e…ab86backed Yes | 2c | 1,318$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 3c | 1,248$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,174$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,149$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 9c | 1,147$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 3c | 1,096$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 3c | 1,023$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 2c | 1,012$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 8c | 951.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 18c | 916.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.56 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 2c | 869.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 5c | 824.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 684.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…94d7backed Yes | 2c | 645.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…9378backed Yes | 4c | 613.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…9940backed Yes | 4c | 539.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde5b…9e50backed Yes | 20c | 506.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…191cbacked Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 18c | 449$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 48cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 431.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…6d52backed Yes | 19c | 425.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 3c | 424.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 337.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5de…aa6dbacked Yes | 4c | 252.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…7cccbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 11c | 185.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb7…f16dbacked Yes | 14c | 138.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde80…81a4backed Yes | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x583a…ae26backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…2972backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 16c | 111.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60db…b95fbacked Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ce…18e3backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.