Ukraine · resolved market
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21bdabe2791e7a70a02829be6a3dd7452fd4f6cba3b1fa1abed109941d8864d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $593,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $490,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $593,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 231 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 3c | 20,261$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.26 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…ed1abacked Yes | 5c | 18,498$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 5c | 17,550$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.25 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 13,385$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.2 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 3c | 8,400$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…9953backed Yes | 1c | 8,083$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 17c | 8,066$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.09 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 1c | 7,700$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd8…cd6cbacked Yes | 4c | 7,303$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 7,291$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.13 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…2415backed Yes | 17c | 7,203$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.65 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…4050backed Yes | 7c | 6,870$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…6aeebacked Yes | 7c | 6,616$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 7c | 5,839$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.75 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 3c | 5,490$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.82 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…bc6bbacked Yes | 12c | 5,065$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.61 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22bd…ad18backed Yes | 4c | 4,794$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 16c | 4,270$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.39 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x877c…007cbacked Yes | 12c | 4,202$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 4,154$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.2 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 2c | 3,909$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 15c | 3,851$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.27 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…4a77backed Yes | 3c | 3,706$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 3,573$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.03 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa6…4465backed Yes | 6c | 3,485$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 16c | 3,417$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.34 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 2,962$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.92 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed No | 76c | 2,702$2,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.64 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf08…b700backed Yes | 6c | 2,478$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…d9e3backed Yes | 1c | 2,471$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 2c | 2,424$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 2c | 2,312$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 2c | 2,256$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 3c | 2,224$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e5…77e4backed Yes | 5c | 2,215$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 1c | 2,178$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,145$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,104$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…b3f7backed Yes | 2c | 2,052$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 2c | 2,052$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 9c | 2,010$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.7 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfade…283bbacked No | 78c | 1,980$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.01 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 12c | 1,976$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.98 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 7c | 1,966$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 2c | 1,959$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed Yes | 27c | 1,951$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc15e…ab86backed Yes | 2c | 1,876$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b74…2891backed No | 73c | 1,848$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 2c | 1,772$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 2c | 1,772$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 2c | 1,772$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc13…9c34backed Yes | 3c | 1,727$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,690$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,679$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,656$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.18 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…9378backed Yes | 2c | 1,656$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 3c | 1,584$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 76c | 1,536$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.79 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 19c | 1,522$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.89 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…9940backed Yes | 2c | 1,512$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…b5e5backed Yes | 7c | 1,497$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,414$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.14 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…88e7backed Yes | 15c | 1,325$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 2c | 1,320$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 23c | 1,198$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.5 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 24cpaid | -71%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 24c | 1,160$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81c…1ec4backed Yes | 2c | 1,152$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d2…4b5ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,121$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 2c | 1,119$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c09…dbfabacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae89…9fb7backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked Yes | 8c | 999.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 5c | 961.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…7c30backed Yes | 10c | 915$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefd…abf6backed Yes | 11c | 874.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc4…277cbacked Yes | 29c | 872.17$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae6…5604backed Yes | 11c | 849.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 12c | 848.22$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936d…6320backed Yes | 5c | 842.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b33…535fbacked Yes | 13c | 823.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 12c | 785.87$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 4c | 776$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 760$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…9c49backed Yes | 13c | 745.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…c974backed Yes | 27c | 735.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 28c | 722.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…17bdbacked No | 75c | 710$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 4c | 700$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c4…198fbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 24c | 663.36$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.64 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 9c | 659.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes | 3c | 655.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 654.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 26c | 640.16$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.32 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3a…d4d5backed Yes | 21c | 625.35$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 4c | 607.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…da44backed Yes | 9c | 600$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2030…6bb0backed Yes | 4c | 592.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.