Ukraine · resolved market
Nord Stream pipeline turned on in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fe6038b279ef3f79917f0c75ad00ab30c1c23a3de7eb3d806aba59e1913b759
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 5,401$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.05 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f7…b96ebacked Yes | 14c | 5,143$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 5c | 3,706$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.17 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 3,618$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,725$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,423$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 2,277$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…6b32backed Yes | 4c | 2,114$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 7c | 2,008$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.55 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 2c | 1,861$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 5c | 1,824$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…c453backed Yes | 17c | 1,808$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 1,678$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 2c | 1,581$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 2c | 1,580$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 8c | 1,100$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…9b16backed Yes | 16c | 1,005$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15e…ab86backed Yes | 2c | 979.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 5c | 969.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 15c | 953.9$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.46 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 1c | 940$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…55efbacked Yes | 2c | 900.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 16c | 880$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.75 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 850.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…9940backed Yes | 2c | 840$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…66c8backed Yes | 2c | 800.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…39f3backed Yes | 2c | 800.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…b4a8backed Yes | 2c | 800.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 9c | 750.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 5c | 720.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f5…edcabacked Yes | 2c | 700.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb054…5ad9backed Yes | 2c | 700.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 11c | 674.07$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 10c | 550$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…2f88backed Yes | 9c | 526.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +534.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 490.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 441.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 8c | 370$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed Yes | 15c | 350$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 7c | 322.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…1fa8backed Yes | 11c | 310.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f8…f705backed Yes | 16c | 308$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6631…3808backed Yes | 12c | 303.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…4c13backed Yes | 17c | 301.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…675ebacked Yes | 15c | 288.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a8…a5e3backed Yes | 5c | 282.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 242.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…04a5backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 7c | 195$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…2541backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…d4c2backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…d185backed Yes | 25c | 73.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1571…c4e6backed Yes | 17c | 69.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…8e1ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.