Token Launches · resolved market
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eaf242ddf0736aa09be8212716683a1ac9735a6e526ee0542cbdc17c73abcc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $319,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $308,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $319,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39de…a94bbacked No | 0c | 32,599$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b4…3c6ebacked No | 2c | 29,628$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.74 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 0c | 7,150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 2c | 5,061$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.31 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 1c | 5,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0995…620dbacked No | 2c | 4,894$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 2c | 4,806$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6623…deebbacked No | 0c | 4,533$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 4,197$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 3,747$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 2c | 3,533$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb776…0297backed No | 3c | 3,467$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…1917backed No | 14c | 3,056$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.46 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked No | 1c | 3,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 1c | 2,918$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…5899backed No | 2c | 2,862$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 1c | 2,743$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 11c | 2,742$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.65 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed No | 3c | 2,573$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c77…f1d6backed No | 3c | 2,250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaf…2833backed No | 4c | 2,200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 1c | 2,095$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 1,978$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 2c | 1,878$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed No | 1c | 1,827$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 1cpaid | +1,462.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f9…c5e8backed No | 2c | 1,824$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +17.9wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 3c | 1,790$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…a2b3backed No | 6c | 1,739$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked No | 10c | 1,600$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…0d18backed No | 1c | 1,544$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…beeebacked No | 1c | 1,527$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 2c | 1,449$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbd…9744backed No | 4c | 1,346$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6225…5eb6backed No | 12c | 1,344$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.21 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 2c | 1,312$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 4c | 1,307$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 2c | 1,213$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f0…5344backed No | 2c | 1,200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfe…932ebacked No | 1c | 1,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 3c | 1,148$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…d14cbacked No | 3c | 1,116$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa86…daccbacked No | 3c | 1,112$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ae…df47backed No | 5c | 1,107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7e…71b7backed No | 13c | 1,102$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 1c | 1,080$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03a…f703backed No | 2c | 1,008$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…8858backed No | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed No | 10c | 935.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…ea74backed No | 3c | 928$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +320.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked No | 8c | 875.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…b394backed No | 4c | 821.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 2c | 772.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…b904backed No | 1c | 754.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd6…4a4abacked No | 6c | 725$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9928…b214backed No | 4c | 699.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 11cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 15c | 670.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb519…addfbacked No | 2c | 660.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…245dbacked No | 11c | 619$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ab…270ebacked No | 4c | 573.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 6c | 572.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed No | 5c | 540$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a3…3f46backed No | 3c | 528.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1afe…9fe1backed No | 4c | 502.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 4c | 501.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…3239backed No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed No | 5c | 450$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 3c | 421.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…cc69backed No | 4c | 421.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…14aebacked No | 6c | 361.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed No | 4c | 360$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed No | 5c | 360$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 7c | 280.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fa…9a8cbacked No | 11c | 271.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed No | 5c | 270$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked No | 4c | 270$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed No | 11c | 256.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed No | 14c | 165.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…84e0backed No | 12c | 164.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…938abacked No | 16c | 152.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…c86fbacked No | 17c | 114.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 103.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Sentient FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.