Token Launches · resolved market
Sentient FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbbadc01628301d0d24d839eb8ad0c8bd160ded93600d6741a5fcba83ac39870
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda7e…c211backed Yes | 13c | 9,574$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4005…4cd5backed Yes | 6c | 8,926$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.69 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 12c | 7,962$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.28 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4203…9a38backed Yes | 13c | 7,883$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…2d1cbacked Yes | 5c | 5,639$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…6123backed Yes | 5c | 5,546$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,915$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,990$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.82 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…83d6backed Yes | 2c | 2,723$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 9c | 2,673$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.32 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 5c | 2,190$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.34 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes | 2c | 1,805$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,764$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 1,405$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5e…502ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,398$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 1,369$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bf…7c67backed Yes | 3c | 1,274$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,061$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 912.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 890$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…902abacked Yes | 3c | 741.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 727.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3858…bb2cbacked Yes | 28c | 727.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 4c | 725.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 80c | 646.76$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.82 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…2dd6backed Yes | 2c | 629.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 2c | 586.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9972…85a7backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889f…ad42backed Yes | 4c | 460.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 435.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 375.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36c3…a901backed Yes | 7c | 289$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 241.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…617ebacked Yes | 7c | 144.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc7…a728backed Yes | 13c | 113.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed Yes | 11c | 106.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa78a…bf55backed Yes | 29c | 96.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 13c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 14c | 82.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb81…24f9backed Yes | 43c | 58.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e79…bf74backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 70c | 24.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sentient FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?this page
- Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $600M one day after launch?Yes won
- Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.