TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump be impeached in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,258,006
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,383,568

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,258,006 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 476 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbbed…c1debacked Yes11c398,869$43,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,537.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes6c215,916$13,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,864.59828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd40d…a926backed Yes4c82,043$3,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,684.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3877…4daabacked Yes7c75,308$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00080%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes8c66,113$5,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,411.278134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes1c60,681$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.8433313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes2c52,901$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.8211419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes4c52,771$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.136229%18 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d3f…41abbacked Yes5c35,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa48…df7ebacked Yes12c29,028$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,449.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7772…5e17backed Yes2c28,291$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.721010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd41f…597fbacked Yes1c27,909$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.4750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed Yes11c23,000$2,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,53080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes4c22,220$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.342847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd152…4faabacked Yes5c22,204$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.08520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes11c21,557$2,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,369.26842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63c3…2783backed Yes9c20,288$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.15714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…030ebacked Yes6c20,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5e4…cd38backed Yes9c20,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes3c19,240$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.9728320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f62…8185backed Yes1c18,582$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.13616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f39…9ccabacked Yes1c17,398$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d2…8d50backed Yes8c17,198$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c16,763$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1280%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes1c16,605$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.663935.9%14 W · 25 L+9.5wins+0.24per pick12cpaid+185%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x7e2a…2a29backed Yes6c15,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ce…0f7ebacked Yes5c14,444$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b6d…58f6backed Yes14c14,418$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes1c14,307$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.544814.6%7 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ba5…660cbacked Yes5c14,034$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeacb…48febacked Yes1c11,982$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da5…31a2backed Yes1c11,916$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48be…092bbacked Yes8c11,686$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd744…53ffbacked Yes5c11,013$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes1c10,799$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.071926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e09…8ef3backed Yes2c10,041$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bcf…70b0backed Yes10c9,950$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bea…2ddabacked Yes7c9,118$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-78.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ce7…87c3backed Yes11c9,092$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes10c8,972$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.044436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01dc…577ebacked Yes6c8,918$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf70b…17a6backed Yes1c8,520$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd57e…95f3backed Yes12c8,350$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-71.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc315…90b0backed Yes6c8,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes5c8,117$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.033013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes2c7,512$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1235519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14a1…1149backed Yes4c6,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+83.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6dd…0baabacked Yes3c5,096$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa665…2c25backed Yes2c5,056$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.46616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3419…58f3backed Yes1c5,020$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.980%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f1…fa1bbacked Yes8c4,454$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8b5…280cbacked Yes16c4,378$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccd4…367dbacked Yes9c4,213$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.1930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fe8…ed3fbacked Yes1c4,208$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f1…9a7dbacked Yes12c4,167$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c4,125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.76397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae4…273cbacked Yes8c3,869$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ace…56d0backed Yes11c3,848$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8662…c94fbacked Yes1c3,736$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383026.7%8 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+25.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xea9a…64b1backed Yes11c3,682$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+94.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9779…9378backed Yes1c3,670$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes3c3,660$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes1c3,600$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1870%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8558…d6c9backed Yes9c3,570$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.0860%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x430d…626ebacked Yes6c3,560$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd6e…a704backed Yes13c3,347$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7304…0379backed Yes11c3,332$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.763953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed Yes10c3,205$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.643033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ec…da36backed Yes1c3,112$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90dd…14e3backed Yes1c3,070$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4590%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb16a…81cbbacked Yes12c3,020$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5bfe…c677backed Yes1c3,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.180%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes5c3,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15032626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc529…4f2cbacked Yes12c3,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbff…e8e7backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes1c3,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d7e…0c34backed Yes1c2,994$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe969…9c89backed Yes8c2,978$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.5630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cdf…2f73backed Yes7c2,909$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf191…06e5backed Yes1c2,840$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6270%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf7af…3ba8backed Yes7c2,839$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x628e…1d80backed Yes1c2,797$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.95450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc15e…ab86backed Yes1c2,770$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.680%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes1c2,700$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc487…005fbacked Yes2c2,651$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e55…07acbacked Yes6c2,630$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-62.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c80…a608backed Yes14c2,563$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.78933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b46…9940backed Yes1c2,550$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ac…a00fbacked Yes2c2,500$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.03560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd511…241cbacked Yes1c2,449$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.31315.4%2 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e7…723ebacked Yes6c2,426$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.25147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c2,352$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.45490%0 W · 49 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb12a…95a5backed Yes5c2,314$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90d1…935fbacked Yes6c2,238$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes6c2,200$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.515227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cf8…04ffbacked Yes11c2,116$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe448…f5cbbacked Yes7c2,114$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8771…9ed0backed Yes7c2,108$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.551030%3 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+126.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,039$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.951,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf750…4abbbacked Yes11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.