Us Politics · resolved market
Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf78b84e417dec6b34f6cbea7002cfb4b16df21aa1cecc8eb701e2e58baf3fcdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,061,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,035,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,061,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f07…9d45backed Yes | 14c | 63,645$8,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,910.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 14c | 55,721$7,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,601.05 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 8c | 30,012$2,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,476.92 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes | 16c | 15,768$2,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,452.86 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 1c | 15,717$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 12c | 12,742$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.62 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac8…96d2backed Yes | 13c | 12,371$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -69%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 14c | 12,076$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfef5…dbe2backed Yes | 13c | 11,310$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…95f3backed Yes | 15c | 10,359$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 9,824$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.07 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 15c | 8,549$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 3c | 8,443$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.62 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 2c | 7,764$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.06 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 1c | 6,758$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 14c | 6,709$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.78 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 1c | 6,415$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,334$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6c…3647backed Yes | 2c | 6,278$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 15c | 5,975$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.62 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 14c | 4,906$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.28 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…6c06backed Yes | 14c | 4,557$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61d…5446backed Yes | 17c | 4,420$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 12c | 4,259$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.34 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes | 17c | 4,000$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.43 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,662$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…e7cabacked Yes | 15c | 3,455$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,395$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…021ebacked Yes | 12c | 3,300$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 1c | 3,273$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes | 6c | 3,123$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5db…d774backed Yes | 1c | 3,028$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,978$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…547abacked Yes | 1c | 2,883$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes | 16c | 2,735$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 1c | 2,638$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes | 20c | 2,545$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.51 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8650…b3f7backed Yes | 1c | 2,371$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 1c | 2,283$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,199$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,076$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed Yes | 15c | 2,042$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 2c | 1,973$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,954$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.77 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 1c | 1,942$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 13c | 1,900$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 1c | 1,881$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 16c | 1,860$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.4 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 18c | 1,850$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.75 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…11aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,709$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…986fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,675$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 2c | 1,670$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9190…294dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,661$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…c23bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,631$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…06e5backed Yes | 1c | 1,630$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 8c | 1,620$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.38 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,609$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.26 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6822…2e97backed Yes | 17c | 1,600$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…6d52backed Yes | 16c | 1,552$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 14c | 1,400$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…b4a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,381$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15e…ab86backed Yes | 2c | 1,354$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 14c | 1,324$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.63 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 1c | 1,319$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8545…ada5backed Yes | 5c | 1,300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 24c | 1,279$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.94 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 12c | 1,275$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…e2efbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…f622backed Yes | 5c | 1,141$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 12c | 1,130$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.6 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,084$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…8deebacked Yes | 1c | 1,072$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…94d7backed Yes | 1c | 1,041$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 17c | 1,001$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.13 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f4…5228backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.86 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…eb9dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes | 2c | 980$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe91b…4929backed Yes | 2c | 958.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed Yes | 1c | 953.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…b49fbacked Yes | 1c | 951.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7e…71b7backed Yes | 1c | 951.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 6c | 937.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…55efbacked Yes | 1c | 930.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df9…f899backed Yes | 1c | 908.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 902.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb054…5ad9backed Yes | 1c | 900.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes | 13c | 869.23$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 10c | 846.51$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…66c8backed Yes | 1c | 845.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.