TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,061,508
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,035,979

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,061,508 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0f07…9d45backed Yes14c63,645$8,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,910.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes14c55,721$7,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,601.05828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes8c30,012$2,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,476.921910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes16c15,768$2,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,452.863923.1%9 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-36.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd8a…23debacked Yes1c15,717$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.5540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes12c12,742$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,526.6216943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ac8…96d2backed Yes13c12,371$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.86812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-69%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes14c12,076$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.0660%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfef5…dbe2backed Yes13c11,310$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.3340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd57e…95f3backed Yes15c10,359$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.111020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-71.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes1c9,824$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0733313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes15c8,549$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30937844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes3c8,443$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.625514.5%8 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-58.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes2c7,764$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.0611419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92a0…5218backed Yes1c6,758$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0870%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes14c6,709$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.781428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes1c6,415$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.45140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c6,334$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.151,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b6c…3647backed Yes2c6,278$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes15c5,975$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.6215332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Yes14c4,906$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.28234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04fa…6c06backed Yes14c4,557$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.971020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd61d…5446backed Yes17c4,420$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.01742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes12c4,259$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.348820.5%18 W · 70 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes17c4,000$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.433228.1%9 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes1c3,662$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18c6…e7cabacked Yes15c3,455$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x433c…aa4cbacked Yes1c3,395$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x103e…021ebacked Yes12c3,300$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes1c3,273$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes6c3,123$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.571330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5db…d774backed Yes1c3,028$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5650%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes4c3,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10535519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4e9…245dbacked Yes1c2,978$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdac…547abacked Yes1c2,883$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes16c2,735$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-71.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes1c2,638$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes20c2,545$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.514422.7%10 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8650…b3f7backed Yes1c2,371$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bfe…c677backed Yes1c2,283$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6380%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes1c2,199$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aed…b8bfbacked Yes1c2,076$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdec7…f536backed Yes15c2,042$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-51.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes13c2,000$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25528320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes2c1,973$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.370%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes15c1,954$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.771711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-62.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3419…58f3backed Yes1c1,942$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2980%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed Yes13c1,900$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2413023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa909…6badbacked Yes1c1,881$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes16c1,860$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.47432.4%24 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes18c1,850$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.75329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae19…11aebacked Yes1c1,709$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…986fbacked Yes18c1,675$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003020%6 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90dd…14e3backed Yes2c1,670$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2490%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9190…294dbacked Yes1c1,661$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67f6…c23bbacked Yes1c1,631$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf191…06e5backed Yes1c1,630$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5570%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes8c1,620$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3814819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes14c1,609$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.263548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6822…2e97backed Yes17c1,600$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…6d52backed Yes16c1,552$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-29.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes14c1,400$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1987254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07b3…b4a8backed Yes1c1,381$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc15e…ab86backed Yes2c1,354$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7180%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes14c1,324$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.634119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83fe…6b61backed Yes1c1,319$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8545…ada5backed Yes5c1,300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+110.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes24c1,279$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.9410338.8%40 W · 63 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes12c1,275$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1522847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes10c1,250$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cd…e2efbacked Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e40…f622backed Yes5c1,141$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-55.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes12c1,130$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.67825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes1c1,084$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1360%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3991…8deebacked Yes1c1,072$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecf9…94d7backed Yes1c1,041$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes17c1,001$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.13316.5%2 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f4…5228backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908111.1%9 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes12c1,000$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.868453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f42…eb9dbacked Yes18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204323.3%10 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bb5…bdcdbacked Yes2c980$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe91b…4929backed Yes2c958.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca3…cb95backed Yes1c953.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.341030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07bd…b49fbacked Yes1c951.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c7e…71b7backed Yes1c951.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed Yes6c937.47$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.567331.5%23 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05c8…55efbacked Yes1c930.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df9…f899backed Yes1c908.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c902.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.33989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb054…5ad9backed Yes1c900.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes13c869.23$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1152634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes10c846.51$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.337038.6%27 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea8…66c8backed Yes1c845.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.