Us Politics · resolved market
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28709e4118598183c365037c26213dbb002999a26b5614429a1b81c4524972c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,725,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,080,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,725,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 2c | 213,617$4,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,136.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 168,847$1,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,916.42 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x869f…82c6backed Yes | 6c | 30,946$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 23,730$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.58 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 1c | 20,395$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…f622backed Yes | 4c | 18,411$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 14,874$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.37 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cb…2320backed Yes | 7c | 13,786$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…3aa4backed Yes | 7c | 12,205$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ef…5990backed Yes | 4c | 8,814$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…7ec1backed Yes | 2c | 8,752$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 8,400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…b244backed Yes | 5c | 8,082$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.34 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aeb…7c40backed Yes | 10c | 6,948$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,859$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 6c | 5,963$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.21 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 8c | 5,543$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…56e8backed Yes | 5c | 5,202$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,139$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afb…7f1cbacked Yes | 8c | 5,119$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 4c | 3,782$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.94 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…326bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,125$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 2,950$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,664$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x405b…5f3ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,360$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be8…23aabacked Yes | 4c | 2,138$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…cb6ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7b20backed Yes | 8c | 1,885$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…1d52backed Yes | 11c | 1,771$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9c…7a1fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,642$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 5c | 1,600$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…c4fabacked Yes | 6c | 1,592$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…f3f5backed Yes | 4c | 1,451$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…ced9backed Yes | 4c | 1,430$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…e50cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9746…c31cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f71…1016backed Yes | 7c | 1,341$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf119…dd05backed Yes | 7c | 1,335$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 9c | 1,271$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…6562backed Yes | 2c | 1,201$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0567…8b3bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,145$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…ae0fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,097$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab79…5fbfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,065$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570d…a068backed Yes | 2c | 1,040$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,038$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,029$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fb…7d8cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,002$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfb…7b61backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b21…1fa5backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 11c | 950$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 2c | 940$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…067abacked Yes | 4c | 924$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…e0b9backed Yes | 10c | 910$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde3f…98d9backed Yes | 12c | 853.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7a…6a4ebacked Yes | 6c | 850$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 12c | 835$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1403…1ff7backed Yes | 12c | 830.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…4482backed Yes | 12c | 816.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fb…26ccbacked Yes | 17c | 806.9$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…c677backed Yes | 2c | 800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707f…5dc7backed Yes | 5c | 758.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…a4f8backed Yes | 1c | 740$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…55efbacked Yes | 2c | 730$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes | 4c | 729.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ce…be28backed Yes | 4c | 716$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd450…1250backed Yes | 12c | 714.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fc…9ba8backed Yes | 4c | 679$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90dd…14e3backed Yes | 2c | 660$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b25…f98fbacked Yes | 4c | 649$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea76…5380backed Yes | 4c | 645$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…ff67backed Yes | 4c | 625.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851f…87f5backed Yes | 4c | 624$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5694…c627backed Yes | 4c | 614$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…9bb2backed Yes | 5c | 612.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…0d8dbacked Yes | 4c | 609.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…2e36backed Yes | 4c | 589$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d6…3333backed Yes | 4c | 579$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…129bbacked Yes | 3c | 575.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b3…5893backed Yes | 4c | 555$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb9…f768backed Yes | 4c | 547$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…6529backed Yes | 4c | 542$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…7e5fbacked Yes | 4c | 541$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…28dabacked Yes | 4c | 537$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39f1…4712backed Yes | 4c | 521$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…f2cdbacked Yes | 4c | 499.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…a981backed Yes | 4c | 488$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2233…f041backed Yes | 4c | 480$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…8586backed Yes | 4c | 480$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 76c | 478.8$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…7544backed Yes | 2c | 476.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…7c8cbacked Yes | 4c | 473$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa7…d727backed Yes | 4c | 471$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529e…4787backed Yes | 4c | 464$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf6…208fbacked Yes | 4c | 457$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf14c…4e18backed Yes | 4c | 444.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 9c | 438.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.