Us Politics · resolved market
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac51c43100e1aaf4968aa61fe72eb320dd308959dc6a7a14a6f3ebe758e7f88d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,034,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,375,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,034,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 798 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x409e…6458backed Yes | 5c | 132,426$7,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,186.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 22c | 50,015$11,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,160.28 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 19c | 44,112$8,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,409.73 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 3c | 43,146$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.86 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 0c | 33,752$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.24 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed Yes | 14c | 32,652$4,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,521.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes | 9c | 31,662$2,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,971.59 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4949backed Yes | 27c | 30,622$8,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,378.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 77c | 30,456$23,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,068.65 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes | 11c | 28,163$3,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,097.67 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 9c | 27,885$2,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,423.54 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 4c | 25,000$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.07 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked No | 71c | 25,000$17,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,314.75 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 5c | 21,315$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.65 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…f0b6backed Yes | 12c | 20,221$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…ed63backed Yes | 20c | 20,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 20c | 18,691$3,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,694.92 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e7…dc57backed Yes | 12c | 17,205$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c6…5b68backed Yes | 12c | 17,113$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 1c | 15,901$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.9 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bf…eb1abacked Yes | 29c | 14,990$4,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,413.39 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…3a0bbacked Yes | 21c | 14,531$2,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,982 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6938…c28bbacked Yes | 37c | 14,114$5,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,196.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 77c | 13,500$10,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,051.84 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 12c | 13,370$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.19 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ab…2551backed Yes | 0c | 13,263$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…907ebacked Yes | 9c | 12,216$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 6c | 11,249$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.22 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 11c | 10,980$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.68 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 20c | 10,363$2,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,093.13 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…350abacked No | 80c | 10,006$7,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc833…c62dbacked Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +88%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e9…f89dbacked Yes | 27c | 9,964$2,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,714.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…82bbbacked Yes | 13c | 9,677$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 4c | 9,322$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.28 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00b1…3e18backed Yes | 0c | 9,007$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 5c | 8,907$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.04 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 8,568$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.93 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…7d13backed Yes | 12c | 8,246$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe165…8211backed Yes | 6c | 8,151$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.25 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 74c | 8,070$6,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.02 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 15c | 8,016$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.9 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 79c | 8,000$6,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…e74ebacked No | 80c | 7,947$6,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 7,830$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.89 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80fa…b3e5backed Yes | 11c | 7,718$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb940…b202backed Yes | 12c | 7,673$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 5c | 7,553$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.11 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…fba1backed Yes | 12c | 7,528$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 10c | 7,456$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.75 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ac…955cbacked Yes | 22c | 7,330$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 18c | 7,125$1,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.73 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 15c | 7,085$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.79 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 21c | 6,970$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.4 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 77c | 6,800$5,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.99 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Yes | 4c | 6,564$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e7…6c0ebacked Yes | 22c | 6,560$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 77c | 6,006$4,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.26 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed No | 78c | 6,000$4,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +124%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Yes | 3c | 5,978$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 9c | 5,857$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.13 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes | 16c | 5,727$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a20…c0bcbacked No | 79c | 5,500$4,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.99 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 77c | 5,500$4,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.98 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6176…9179backed Yes | 25c | 5,412$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 12c | 5,383$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 17c | 5,100$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5f…92debacked Yes | 32c | 5,040$1,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…27b0backed Yes | 20c | 5,004$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…2418backed No | 78c | 5,000$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe312…cbe4backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 9c | 4,914$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.53 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 11c | 4,905$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed Yes | 8c | 4,890$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…e8aabacked Yes | 25c | 4,890$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 75c | 4,848$3,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.03 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7819…eccebacked Yes | 30c | 4,805$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6051…9e3fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,660$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…2317backed Yes | 22c | 4,639$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 14c | 4,598$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1767…1f60backed Yes | 40c | 4,560$1,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 10c | 4,555$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.5 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…7ee3backed Yes | 16c | 4,538$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5369…7302backed Yes | 15c | 4,516$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb98…8bfdbacked Yes | 12c | 4,420$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…b971backed Yes | 7c | 4,361$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 80c | 4,329$3,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.55 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…e838backed No | 79c | 4,310$3,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…682bbacked Yes | 18c | 4,304$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8f…7ec7backed Yes | 19c | 4,300$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 18c | 4,200$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa0…e79bbacked No | 73c | 4,124$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8e…97adbacked Yes | 14c | 4,092$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 10c | 4,050$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb718…e5e2backed Yes | 12c | 4,024$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…9782backed Yes | 25c | 4,005$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ac2bbacked No | 80c | 4,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 3,988$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.78 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.