Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump recognize Somaliland in first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf01a06b395cd30e194b27052c72d3a40f031aa9364c9d2cda96892725524c9f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 10c | 12,700$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.21 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 10c | 3,133$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.89 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 77c | 2,608$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.86 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 30c | 1,616$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.26 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 79c | 1,550$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…a274backed Yes | 9c | 1,305$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.02 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed Yes | 10c | 1,195$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes | 14c | 983$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.71 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd42…2a9bbacked No | 60c | 910$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…c3b5backed Yes | 39c | 910$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…0ec6backed Yes | 40c | 910$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071a…c93abacked No | 61c | 910$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 734.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 30c | 632.14$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.64 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…c725backed Yes | 5c | 628$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdd…31acbacked No | 62c | 481.46$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 72c | 479.18$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.3 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 67c | 451.61$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.9 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…33a1backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 9c | 385$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 4c | 382.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…92cabacked Yes | 11c | 366.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…16debacked Yes | 29c | 364.16$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 6c | 325.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 20c | 322.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…3d36backed Yes | 32c | 305.62$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 293.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 6c | 273.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 37c | 250$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…0837backed No | 67c | 238.81$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.81 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 238.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0823…55eabacked No | 66c | 214.7$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 78c | 203.53$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed Yes | 38c | 200.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…6694backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 27c | 186.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 66c | 161.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…0829backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed Yes | 29c | 145.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008f…3104backed No | 74c | 135.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 10c | 125.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc783…ea0ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66de…71d4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…b81bbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f26…9d1cbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fae…ce9fbacked Yes | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed No | 78c | 75.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…5ec5backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…2281backed No | 68c | 65.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2592…a74cbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed Yes | 18c | 61.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa37…1be0backed No | 68c | 60.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab4…13b2backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…68b0backed No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…3327backed Yes | 33c | 40.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79bd…c95bbacked No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 36.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…e40dbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked No | 66c | 31.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…d147backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae38…f877backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…7c47backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…6fedbacked No | 68c | 19.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaecf…9d66backed No | 78c | 15.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.