Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iranian regime fall before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dfbb35a03a30efe1d4d179da323f81211dbb82a5f7261de4924379ac24de63c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,098,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,782,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,098,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2d3…9633backed Yes | 5c | 117,761$5,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,345.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9758…536dbacked Yes | 5c | 84,126$4,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,233.63 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 9c | 54,611$4,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,821.63 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…6e34backed Yes | 7c | 40,525$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…a4c0backed Yes | 7c | 39,527$2,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,930.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e31…901ebacked Yes | 4c | 39,518$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560.33 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes | 4c | 36,956$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 36,770$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,835.68 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 6c | 35,223$2,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,241.48 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 8c | 32,730$2,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,633.75 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 4c | 32,241$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.85 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…67fbbacked Yes | 7c | 28,999$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 23,279$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.86 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 8c | 18,455$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.97 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 1c | 16,694$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a86…80efbacked Yes | 3c | 15,028$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 9c | 14,787$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.41 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 5c | 14,765$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.07 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 14,699$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 14,500$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.37 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…f272backed Yes | 9c | 14,365$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 13,371$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.22 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 10,861$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…aa15backed Yes | 10c | 10,336$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acc…f86cbacked Yes | 10c | 10,082$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d30…7805backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8546…fee0backed Yes | 3c | 9,800$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 5c | 9,755$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.68 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…efb3backed Yes | 6c | 9,516$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 9,175$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.66 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 9,100$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…bfc5backed Yes | 3c | 8,500$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 10c | 8,331$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.84 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed Yes | 1c | 8,094$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4418…b4dfbacked Yes | 9c | 8,056$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 22c | 8,000$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf81…7defbacked Yes | 1c | 8,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 10c | 7,400$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.99 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 1c | 7,139$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 5c | 7,055$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.04 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 9c | 6,764$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.17 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…4e30backed Yes | 8c | 6,613$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 6,545$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,474$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.95 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 7c | 6,414$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 11c | 6,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 8c | 5,990$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.84 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes | 2c | 5,842$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…91a8backed Yes | 5c | 5,815$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b01…263ebacked Yes | 9c | 5,771$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 5,600$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 5,555$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc032…6668backed Yes | 5c | 5,493$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 3c | 5,200$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.2 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 4c | 5,010$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.13 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 3c | 4,915$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.41 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 5c | 4,912$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.74 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…a0f3backed Yes | 1c | 4,541$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf55…ba75backed Yes | 7c | 4,468$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 13c | 4,415$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.93 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked No | 74c | 4,365$3,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…90ccbacked Yes | 7c | 4,104$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 9c | 4,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c9…cef3backed Yes | 21c | 3,857$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.67 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc53b…7049backed Yes | 3c | 3,775$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,629$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 2c | 3,605$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6059…2f6ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,555$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.21 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…8cffbacked Yes | 5c | 3,448$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.33 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc59c…3dd2backed Yes | 9c | 3,417$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…91bdbacked Yes | 9c | 3,408$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.31 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c7f9backed Yes | 6c | 3,288$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf9…f593backed Yes | 2c | 3,281$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 3c | 3,021$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…0673backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 2,957$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.04 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,926$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.09 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,901$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.99 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec1d…5de1backed Yes | 6c | 2,887$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.31 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 11c | 2,818$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…56e8backed Yes | 4c | 2,778$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…d598backed Yes | 3c | 2,759$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.06 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…2d76backed Yes | 2c | 2,725$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 2,669$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.64 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 2,649$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.42 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf589…9d0ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,536$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe757…8047backed Yes | 6c | 2,485$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2072…1201backed Yes | 1c | 2,375$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46b…7deabacked Yes | 4c | 2,271$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Yes | 18c | 2,264$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393f…ed3dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 5c | 2,198$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.11 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 8c | 2,155$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.11 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -85%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9258…a538backed Yes | 4c | 2,089$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 2c | 2,077$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e63…9d35backed Yes | 1c | 2,050$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…cb66backed Yes | 5c | 2,001$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1c…acecbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…182cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,980$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.