TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the Iranian regime fall before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,098,344
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,782,332

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,098,344 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 294 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb2d3…9633backed Yes5c117,761$5,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,345.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9758…536dbacked Yes5c84,126$4,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,233.63254%1 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-49.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes9c54,611$4,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,821.638450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd661…6e34backed Yes7c40,525$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x373e…a4c0backed Yes7c39,527$2,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,930.891118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e31…901ebacked Yes4c39,518$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.33119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-76.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5afd…7e8dbacked Yes4c36,956$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c36,770$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.68721.4%1 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes6c35,223$2,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.487014.3%10 W · 60 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-45%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes8c32,730$2,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,633.7543212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes4c32,241$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.851421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf414…67fbbacked Yes7c28,999$2,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,053.41241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes6c23,279$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.8642120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes8c18,455$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.972450%12 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes1c16,694$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.176018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a86…80efbacked Yes3c15,028$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes9c14,787$1,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,335.414769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes5c14,765$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.077413.5%10 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-54.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c14,699$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.582078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes1c14,500$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3710634%36 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6032…f272backed Yes9c14,365$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes3c13,371$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.229711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c10,861$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.511879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0301…aa15backed Yes10c10,336$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2acc…f86cbacked Yes10c10,082$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.55425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-65%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d30…7805backed Yes2c10,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.52933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8546…fee0backed Yes3c9,800$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes5c9,755$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.6831241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x423d…efb3backed Yes6c9,516$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-53.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes2c9,175$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.661235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c9,100$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d57…bfc5backed Yes3c8,500$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.78666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+37.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes10c8,331$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.842814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f41…a496backed Yes1c8,094$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8960%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4418…b4dfbacked Yes9c8,056$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes22c8,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7602532%8 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf81…7defbacked Yes1c8,000$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-77.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes10c7,400$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.992850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes1c7,139$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.283116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes5c7,055$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.041520%3 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes9c6,764$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.173588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31fc…4e30backed Yes8c6,613$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes1c6,545$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4728427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes2c6,474$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9551138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes7c6,414$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4708552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes11c6,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66027233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes8c5,990$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.848139.5%32 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes2c5,842$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-80.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa299…91a8backed Yes5c5,815$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.4160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b01…263ebacked Yes9c5,771$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes0c5,600$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0426619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c5,555$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.99504%2 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-81%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc032…6668backed Yes5c5,493$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.121323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+62.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes3c5,200$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.27032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes4c5,010$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.13439.3%4 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30190%0 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed Yes3c4,915$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.41911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes5c4,912$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.745827.6%16 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3c5…a0f3backed Yes1c4,541$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.327926.6%21 W · 58 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf55…ba75backed Yes7c4,468$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa244…8e63backed Yes13c4,415$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.9311531.3%36 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked No74c4,365$3,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.91944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e1c…90ccbacked Yes7c4,104$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes9c4,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602528%7 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70c9…cef3backed Yes21c3,857$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.673735.1%13 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc53b…7049backed Yes3c3,775$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.52416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-56.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes2c3,629$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.194429.5%13 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes2c3,605$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.439414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6059…2f6ebacked Yes5c3,555$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.212729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2840…8cffbacked Yes5c3,448$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.33128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc59c…3dd2backed Yes9c3,417$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad9…91bdbacked Yes9c3,408$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.311711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…c7f9backed Yes6c3,288$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.561241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+29.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bf9…f593backed Yes2c3,281$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.451315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-63.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes3c3,021$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3220617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb02f…0673backed Yes13c3,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes9c2,957$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.0489617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c2,926$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.091,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes11c2,901$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.994425%11 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec1d…5de1backed Yes6c2,887$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.31137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-83.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes11c2,818$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3203627.8%10 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c7…56e8backed Yes4c2,778$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.88728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…d598backed Yes3c2,759$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.061844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99c…2d76backed Yes2c2,725$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-81.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes4c2,669$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6412524.8%31 W · 94 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes8c2,649$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.427233.3%24 W · 48 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf589…9d0ebacked Yes9c2,536$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe757…8047backed Yes6c2,485$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1553145.2%14 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+1.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2072…1201backed Yes1c2,375$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa46b…7deabacked Yes4c2,271$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.64633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0495…c68fbacked Yes18c2,264$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x393f…ed3dbacked Yes1c2,222$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes5c2,198$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.11726.9%5 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes8c2,155$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.11147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-85%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9258…a538backed Yes4c2,089$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b24…2440backed Yes2c2,077$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-41.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e63…9d35backed Yes1c2,050$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e08…cb66backed Yes5c2,001$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1c…acecbacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0308…182cbacked Yes3c1,980$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.594332.6%14 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.