Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 20-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc7d3eba0d5c91f58cc90626065c95243fc2d9b47ce9dfe1ab4341e230b6dc84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 6c | 19,180$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.82 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 14c | 13,612$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906.35 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 2c | 11,281$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.49 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 15c | 6,755$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 11c | 6,641$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.24 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 4c | 2,968$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.03 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…3156backed Yes | 8c | 2,322$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed No | 78c | 2,168$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.91 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 12c | 2,012$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.77 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,869$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.01 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,792$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…e216backed Yes | 55c | 1,690$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.32 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5209…e14ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,674$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +96%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,668$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…97ddbacked Yes | 10c | 1,575$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed Yes | 22c | 1,531$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 24c | 1,352$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.76 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51b…f0e1backed Yes | 4c | 1,234$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0069…4522backed Yes | 37c | 1,233$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 9c | 1,198$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 7c | 1,140$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…49e7backed Yes | 10c | 1,123$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 18c | 1,085$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.36 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 29c | 947.36$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.9 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 19c | 899.02$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.67 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…3235backed Yes | 23c | 894.78$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.64 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 2c | 894.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 9c | 885$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 37c | 877.38$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.41 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cd…9639backed Yes | 41c | 860.43$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…7befbacked Yes | 31c | 858.81$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…9313backed Yes | 17c | 774.18$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…a4e6backed Yes | 8c | 747.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 16c | 722.65$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.14 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff22…4b18backed Yes | 56c | 708.68$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4872…128fbacked Yes | 21c | 706.42$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.34 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929e…1935backed Yes | 7c | 681.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 76c | 600.97$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…5482backed Yes | 24c | 586.59$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…6abdbacked Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…126fbacked Yes | 8c | 540.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfc…f16dbacked Yes | 47c | 521.7$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c2e6backed Yes | 3c | 508.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 16c | 500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…abc3backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…10c0backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…7889backed Yes | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked No | 72c | 496.09$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.15 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…f762backed Yes | 53c | 475.09$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.08 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 5c | 467.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 453.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 49c | 437.27$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.26 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 13c | 417.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0750…86dcbacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…c68dbacked Yes | 38c | 399.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…809abacked Yes | 29c | 399.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 8c | 396.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 44c | 390.65$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked No | 50c | 389.41$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.03 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…e36dbacked Yes | 63c | 382.78$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 10c | 379.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed Yes | 21c | 374.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…8508backed Yes | 53c | 374.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe268…2feabacked No | 75c | 366.2$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 6c | 360.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…8cdabacked Yes | 36c | 359.08$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…42a4backed Yes | 61c | 328.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 5c | 318.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 31c | 317$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 43c | 303.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8053…810cbacked Yes | 32c | 300.53$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0302…f3fabacked Yes | 5c | 285.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed Yes | 6c | 283.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 9c | 280.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 18c | 267.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 27c | 261.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…987ebacked Yes | 4c | 260.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…7e57backed Yes | 48c | 259.84$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.22 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…4547backed Yes | 16c | 259$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 8c | 258.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 4c | 252.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dc…0d98backed Yes | 5c | 249.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f48…fbacbacked Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 33c | 232.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 7c | 225$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…b6aebacked Yes | 49c | 216.77$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…3d36backed Yes | 26c | 215.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 49c | 213.75$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965f…8b54backed Yes | 50c | 206.85$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4584…69b4backed Yes | 27c | 206.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +140.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…4d83backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc5…0c52backed Yes | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed Yes | 47c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 8c | 199.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 20-27?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 20-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.