Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 20-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf56b00519c0841f123302402a247d0241acd93a22e1a1cc8a7a557abe6e34dc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $210,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd036…36eebacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…6c2bbacked Yes | 2c | 38,203$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd847…06d4backed Yes | 2c | 11,874$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 11c | 8,103$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.68 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…54b7backed Yes | 2c | 3,342$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 3,035$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 5c | 1,978$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…8685backed Yes | 17c | 1,876$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982f…bbdebacked Yes | 10c | 1,800$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 13c | 1,527$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.45 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,355$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 11c | 1,200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 12c | 1,156$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.98 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,090$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.95 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed Yes | 10c | 1,058$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,016$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…5482backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9b…2954backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec2…078abacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +332.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe25…8404backed Yes | 17c | 889.49$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed Yes | 19c | 861$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.59 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 12c | 807.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 786.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14cb…bb98backed Yes | 18c | 755.91$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.06 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…2841backed Yes | 14c | 750$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…f013backed Yes | 14c | 737.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 12c | 725.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 13c | 711$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…d5efbacked Yes | 14c | 667$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 16c | 646.26$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.02 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…788cbacked Yes | 16c | 612.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…3235backed Yes | 18c | 565.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0517…7127backed Yes | 13c | 534.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 13c | 517$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7f56backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a3…7838backed Yes | 20c | 372.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 13c | 300.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…de00backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…10c0backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…c3f5backed Yes | 18c | 280$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 18c | 278.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0302…f3fabacked Yes | 19c | 236.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…2526backed Yes | 17c | 229$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -6.7wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 16c | 220$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 203.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0750…86dcbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f74…8edbbacked Yes | 21c | 185.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…7ec3backed Yes | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 14c | 179.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…b02bbacked Yes | 18c | 175$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 16c | 174.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…6884backed Yes | 8c | 171.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 11c | 170.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…bdadbacked Yes | 15c | 147.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 14c | 144.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…6ba7backed Yes | 14c | 143.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdee…b0d0backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…a4e6backed Yes | 13c | 131.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…4547backed Yes | 18c | 126.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…6abdbacked Yes | 16c | 125.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef3…cba8backed Yes | 11c | 122.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b17…fcd1backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5209…e14ebacked Yes | 14c | 119.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +96%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed Yes | 14c | 115$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…126fbacked Yes | 17c | 114.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 78c | 111$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…971cbacked Yes | 23c | 109.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab76…a5abbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22e…8d9cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c2e6backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…f38bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dc…0d98backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…0821backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…e216backed Yes | 21c | 94.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97b…16b4backed Yes | 13c | 88.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…cf7ebacked Yes | 21c | 80.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26f…bc7cbacked Yes | 18c | 78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f36…3f26backed Yes | 18c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…bee8backed Yes | 18c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cf…7341backed Yes | 18c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 20-27?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 20-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.