Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 20-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d65c2360ae87c27b252cfb41356914e80187659be5685fb65da8e17ccfd215d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 1c | 22,850$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.58 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 2c | 14,656$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.36 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 12,053$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.56 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 4c | 9,913$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.22 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 12c | 6,381$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.93 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 4c | 3,622$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.17 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,897$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,817$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed Yes | 5c | 2,763$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…99c4backed Yes | 7c | 2,716$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 8c | 2,684$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.72 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,430$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…5b2cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,400$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 2c | 1,903$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 3c | 1,823$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…49e7backed Yes | 15c | 1,622$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…f013backed Yes | 7c | 1,515$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,379$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bf…6c2bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,373$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…a4f0backed Yes | 4c | 1,276$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +309.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x929e…1935backed Yes | 3c | 1,257$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…7889backed Yes | 15c | 1,165$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,031$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 5c | 1,013$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…10c0backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 944.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…e5cdbacked Yes | 1c | 908.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 1c | 899.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 3c | 864.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0302…f3fabacked Yes | 2c | 777.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…54b7backed Yes | 4c | 762.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed Yes | 13c | 743.74$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd7…dc01backed Yes | 4c | 718.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +404.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…5eb9backed Yes | 2c | 709$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…155ebacked Yes | 2c | 674.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450f…c3c2backed Yes | 4c | 666.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…126fbacked Yes | 3c | 656.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Yes | 11c | 548.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 11c | 544.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…6bf3backed Yes | 3c | 543.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 4c | 506.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…abc3backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…4547backed Yes | 10c | 473.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 3c | 439.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 10c | 422.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed Yes | 8c | 399.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…3156backed Yes | 3c | 389.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 9c | 386.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 8c | 360$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…b6aebacked Yes | 5c | 344.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 7c | 328.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf321…a368backed Yes | 8c | 321$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f48…fbacbacked Yes | 12c | 319.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…2e7dbacked Yes | 15c | 309.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c0…4328backed Yes | 6c | 297.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 13c | 265.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…8cdabacked Yes | 13c | 233.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb279…d83fbacked Yes | 5c | 219.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 12c | 189.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 13c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…5907backed Yes | 16c | 147.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2c…2436backed Yes | 14c | 140.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4334…e6f2backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked Yes | 12c | 100.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 12c | 94.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 20-27?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 20-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.