Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 20-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ae8f1bb3cb5f75296999eccf7d7e2e351641128a2c571f4be96f24bc33c5038
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $291,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $263,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 13c | 30,400$3,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,980 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 1c | 23,340$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.02 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 15c | 16,673$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,483.8 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 15c | 14,842$2,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,274.14 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 9c | 12,210$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.71 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 1c | 10,388$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 17c | 10,292$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.28 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed Yes | 10c | 9,452$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 15c | 6,085$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.14 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…066dbacked Yes | 22c | 3,770$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…d421backed Yes | 15c | 2,513$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 13c | 2,292$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.17 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 2,283$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…a4f0backed Yes | 7c | 2,091$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +309.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked No | 80c | 2,083$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.59 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5b…6848backed Yes | 8c | 1,737$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 1c | 1,560$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…b5bcbacked No | 79c | 1,500$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dc…d0f9backed Yes | 21c | 1,483$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 15c | 1,307$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…10c0backed Yes | 16c | 1,200$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes | 4c | 1,100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 21c | 1,006$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.05 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a59…dbeabacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…0de5backed Yes | 20c | 996.25$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…006ebacked Yes | 13c | 981.48$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…54b7backed Yes | 13c | 755.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…3235backed Yes | 14c | 692.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…24febacked Yes | 24c | 649.11$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.29 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…3ef9backed Yes | 16c | 629.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc476…8715backed Yes | 8c | 580.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 16c | 557.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed Yes | 11c | 499.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…d995backed Yes | 18c | 440.77$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 429.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dc…0d98backed Yes | 10c | 423$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…15c9backed Yes | 20c | 394.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 19c | 392$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 14c | 378.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3af…bbd7backed No | 78c | 352.09$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0517…7127backed Yes | 21c | 305.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf321…a368backed Yes | 21c | 299.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…f762backed Yes | 22c | 290.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…8f34backed No | 80c | 288.23$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 17c | 269.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes | 14c | 259.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…5c56backed Yes | 8c | 251.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…71e6backed Yes | 8c | 248.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11f…9a86backed Yes | 14c | 215.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…74fdbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0750…86dcbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…ef2cbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 22c | 199.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…de00backed Yes | 19c | 191.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 189.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…e61bbacked Yes | 13c | 185.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed Yes | 17c | 180.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 13c | 150.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5afc…ba0bbacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +205.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…de15backed Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 12c | 141.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…2c77backed Yes | 18c | 136.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…9417backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…a4e6backed Yes | 17c | 132.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…42a4backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 11c | 119.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…6abdbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5209…e14ebacked Yes | 15c | 104.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +96%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…5055backed Yes | 19c | 100.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa679…83b4backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…7d63backed Yes | 22c | 99.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 14c | 99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x892e…04f3backed Yes | 20c | 90.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb08a…f0d9backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…31cabacked Yes | 14c | 88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…7cffbacked Yes | 19c | 78.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343a…cfa3backed Yes | 21c | 74.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb474…0c0bbacked Yes | 14c | 73.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…b192backed Yes | 24c | 70.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…003fbacked Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c0…4328backed Yes | 20c | 55.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd918…a40bbacked No | 79c | 51.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48e…51c4backed Yes | 22c | 49.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…82a3backed Yes | 21c | 49.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +726.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…34b2backed No | 80c | 45.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a4…8c6abacked Yes | 23c | 44.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…47f3backed No | 79c | 40.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…1773backed No | 78c | 37.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e1…7c36backed No | 80c | 37.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363f…91f2backed No | 79c | 33.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…e733backed No | 78c | 32.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b1…6fddbacked No | 79c | 22.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 20-27?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 20-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.