Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x055f0838ccbaafce2a0d694d20ffb815cb0b5bb85667fee55cce958a7fe89c5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $248,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 5c | 17,517$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,578.49 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 23c | 10,231$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,911.35 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed No | 0c | 10,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 73c | 8,525$6,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,278.14 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 62c | 5,380$3,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,351.08 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 31c | 3,776$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 5c | 3,344$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,169.46 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 19c | 3,344$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,692.19 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 48c | 3,121$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.55 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,909.82 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 23c | 3,000$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.9 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 14c | 2,989$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,566.01 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…7889backed Yes | 31c | 2,873$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 5c | 2,805$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,668.46 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 5c | 2,034$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,932.97 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 51c | 2,023$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.98 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed Yes | 5c | 1,909$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.16 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…5482backed Yes | 48c | 1,774$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.65 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…3156backed Yes | 6c | 1,632$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.84 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…e216backed Yes | 44c | 1,613$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.64 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee7…8f5bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,576$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 17c | 1,457$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.32 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…f762backed Yes | 35c | 1,443$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.81 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed Yes | 37c | 1,400$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,308$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.02 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…284dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,241$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed Yes | 30c | 1,142$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,086$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.79 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 10c | 1,037$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.73 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…3235backed Yes | 21c | 1,034$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.36 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed Yes | 18c | 1,021$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 45c | 954.65$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.1 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 28c | 947.76$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.4 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x965f…8b54backed Yes | 28c | 932.31$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed No | 5c | 894.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cd…9639backed Yes | 39c | 892.58$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2684…d3d6backed Yes | 25c | 857.82$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.11 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x929e…1935backed Yes | 5c | 851.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c2e6backed Yes | 25c | 794.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.32 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…5621backed Yes | 6c | 790.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…5907backed Yes | 25c | 771.19$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 31c | 716.19$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.8 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 40c | 692.84$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 33c | 680.67$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.05 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0b…2341backed No | 77c | 645.3$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed No | 32c | 633.05$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 12c | 630.58$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.79 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 7c | 610.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.09 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…9fd2backed No | 30c | 610.08$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 8c | 606.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.98 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 56c | 599.98$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.59 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…050fbacked Yes | 10c | 548.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +214.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…126fbacked Yes | 6c | 532.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.96 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 5c | 516.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.84 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 19c | 514.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.5 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Yes | 8c | 504.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 501.21$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.05 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…10c0backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…a4e6backed Yes | 27c | 496.59$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.19 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf59…fefdbacked No | 44c | 494.49$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 8c | 493.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.71 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 27c | 487.11$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.54 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 26c | 461.66$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.15 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd7…dc01backed Yes | 7c | 435.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +404.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 80c | 423.82$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 71c | 421.07$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.07 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 18c | 419.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.32 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 19c | 414.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.66 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0069…4522backed Yes | 45c | 412.25$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…8cdabacked Yes | 33c | 389.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…42a4backed No | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd013…94eabacked Yes | 39c | 383.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 55c | 378.84$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.36 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…c68dbacked Yes | 16c | 370.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 7c | 366.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.59 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…4547backed Yes | 32c | 356.65$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.6 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…8508backed Yes | 51c | 355.86$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.86 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Yes | 42c | 333.82$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.21 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…82a3backed Yes | 4c | 327.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +726.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Yes | 23c | 323.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.47 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +85%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 75c | 322.72$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.39 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 30c | 321.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.47 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7891…d421backed Yes | 35c | 318.82$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed No | 24c | 312.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed No | 78c | 310.26$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.91 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…f9bfbacked Yes | 33c | 302.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…98a3backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 7c | 297.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.62 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 56c | 291.24$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.65 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe268…2feabacked No | 79c | 288.44$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…49a1backed Yes | 80c | 281.31$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3b…d67cbacked Yes | 9c | 273.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.89 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5afc…ba0bbacked Yes | 4c | 273.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +205.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 39c | 271.47$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.71 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 10c | 267$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.26 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 61c | 264.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.46 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…7e57backed Yes | 34c | 260.05$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf88…a012backed Yes | 59c | 260$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 20-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.