TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 20-27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,886
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,272

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,886 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes11c9,852$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.768206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes7c6,122$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.7818810.1%19 W · 169 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes1c5,200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes5c4,833$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.126112.6%33 W · 228 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes2c2,887$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6875.7%5 W · 82 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed Yes10c2,884$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.37837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8111…489dbacked Yes5c2,334$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.021627.4%12 W · 150 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-3.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes9c2,083$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.2917419%33 W · 141 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x850d…5d3cbacked Yes11c1,629$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.47616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes14c1,475$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.7231217.9%56 W · 256 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes9c1,250$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.55010%5 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes12c1,243$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.451438.4%12 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Yes13c1,038$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135224.5%1 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-84.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes11c1,004$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.342303.9%9 W · 221 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-78.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d74…ea23backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x555c…b528backed Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-62.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf37b…4edabacked Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5636.3%4 W · 59 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Yes10c973.06$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.314027.5%11 W · 29 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+33.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9376…1655backed Yes16c925.38$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.0615717.8%28 W · 129 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1601…2841backed Yes12c900$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes11c871.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes12c813.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007517.3%13 W · 62 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe733…284dbacked Yes13c796.65$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbba7…2629backed Yes12c790.35$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1278…c12ebacked Yes13c785.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3258…9e52backed Yes12c772.71$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.55719.9%7 W · 64 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9852…15c9backed Yes22c739.27$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59c9…3235backed Yes14c713.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes2c692.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.06714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605320.8%11 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc745…9499backed Yes17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100238.7%2 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-35.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e63…9313backed Yes10c518.98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2170%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x508a…3713backed Yes10c500.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10520973.2%153 W · 56 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xded2…abc3backed Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-70.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501540%6 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce73…70a9backed Yes3c499.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.52114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-32%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x678b…5482backed Yes14c438.17$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.331921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+128.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes16c436.7$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7965623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b3e…3096backed Yes12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-82.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x277b…c68dbacked Yes11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5005…a4e6backed Yes13c400$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.042313%3 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76eb…525abacked Yes13c395.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.135623.2%13 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13b…101fbacked Yes14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes10c351$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8814314.7%21 W · 122 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes16c311.3$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.913917.3%24 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c305.83$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5899619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5209…e14ebacked Yes7c272.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.26812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+96%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06be…8a46backed Yes12c250$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.19547.4%4 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x464e…7bd8backed Yes11c250$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.753327.3%9 W · 24 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes9c244.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2113519.3%26 W · 109 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0302…f3fabacked Yes13c242.53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32130%0 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa437…3422backed Yes14c242.03$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.53137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bce…85fabacked Yes14c230.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.862714.8%4 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f76…8e57backed No75c201.96$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4910620.8%22 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick17cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0750…86dcbacked Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2460%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207638.2%29 W · 47 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb281…e048backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342010%2 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-80.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1802…a3afbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222010%2 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd045…7ec3backed Yes11c185$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.352128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf9…21f6backed Yes13c182.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.13414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f48…fbacbacked Yes8c172.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.78616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a7…9c79backed Yes11c170.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.64214.3%6 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-56.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ba9…6ba7backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-89.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4770…89e4backed Yes12c164.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x641a…6884backed Yes12c162.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.041717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9db8…126fbacked Yes16c161.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+78.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes13c154$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20578.8%5 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick9cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1212814.1%18 W · 110 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes15c150$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225518.2%10 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-60.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc5dc…0d98backed Yes14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.53613.9%5 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d4f…99f0backed Yes14c142.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafd4…5ec9backed Yes15c135.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes12c121.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517216.9%29 W · 143 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…fa04backed Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201822.2%4 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c72…9ce2backed Yes12c116.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes9c115$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.35219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012216.4%20 W · 102 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x28d6…8322backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.55815.5%9 W · 49 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd145…93a7backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb990…c2e6backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-49.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa4…0821backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124615.2%7 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes16c91.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.76618.2%12 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-9.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcef3…cba8backed Yes16c88.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6628…84b1backed Yes13c80$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a4…0ed9backed Yes15c75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63d8…9705backed Yes15c67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaed…540cbacked Yes16c63.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.