Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 20-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67500eddcbf5fe7d5e5ec16b67c212eb58e462845a0bb10bf4401c48088bbd07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 11c | 9,852$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.76 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 7c | 6,122$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.78 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 5c | 4,833$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.1 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 2,887$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed Yes | 10c | 2,884$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,334$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.02 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 9c | 2,083$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.29 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850d…5d3cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,629$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,475$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.72 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 12c | 1,243$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.45 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Yes | 13c | 1,038$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,004$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…ea23backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…b528backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 10c | 973.06$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 16c | 925.38$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.06 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…2841backed Yes | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 11c | 871.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 12c | 813.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…284dbacked Yes | 13c | 796.65$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba7…2629backed Yes | 12c | 790.35$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1278…c12ebacked Yes | 13c | 785.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 12c | 772.71$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…15c9backed Yes | 22c | 739.27$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…3235backed Yes | 14c | 713.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes | 2c | 692.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…9313backed Yes | 10c | 518.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508a…3713backed Yes | 10c | 500.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…abc3backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed Yes | 3c | 499.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…5482backed Yes | 14c | 438.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 16c | 436.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3e…3096backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…c68dbacked Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…a4e6backed Yes | 13c | 400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 13c | 395.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…101fbacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 10c | 351$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 16c | 311.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 305.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5209…e14ebacked Yes | 7c | 272.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +96%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 12c | 250$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 9c | 244.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0302…f3fabacked Yes | 13c | 242.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa437…3422backed Yes | 14c | 242.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked Yes | 14c | 230.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed No | 75c | 201.96$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0750…86dcbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…7ec3backed Yes | 11c | 185$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 13c | 182.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f48…fbacbacked Yes | 8c | 172.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 11c | 170.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…6ba7backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4770…89e4backed Yes | 12c | 164.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…6884backed Yes | 12c | 162.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…126fbacked Yes | 16c | 161.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dc…0d98backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4f…99f0backed Yes | 14c | 142.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…5ec9backed Yes | 15c | 135.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 12c | 121.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c72…9ce2backed Yes | 12c | 116.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 9c | 115$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd145…93a7backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c2e6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…0821backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 16c | 91.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef3…cba8backed Yes | 16c | 88.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…84b1backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…0ed9backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d8…9705backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaed…540cbacked Yes | 16c | 63.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 20-27?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500 or more times Dec 20-27?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 20-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.