TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump remove FBI director Christopher Wray?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$391,561
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$386,398

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,561 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2023…2d55backed Yes0c189,488$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.294814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes21c8,068$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,683.377227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No35c7,835$2,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,076.3141238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No19c7,716$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,264.5911940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked No41c6,391$2,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,782.498739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No19c6,298$1,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,104.4720446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x758a…4893backed Yes60c5,579$3,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,372.593050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0fe9…4fd9backed No74c5,559$4,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.543420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-64.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No40c4,712$1,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,811.0315646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes36c4,145$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.941244.8%6 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-85.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee63…07a4backed Yes70c3,953$2,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,768.241040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebc1…2f40backed No79c3,815$3,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No27c3,589$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,622.0337533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No25c3,218$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,403.2516854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x444e…01d0backed No26c3,017$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.24042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes22c2,869$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.6211848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No62c2,862$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.817452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x856f…e1d7backed Yes48c2,479$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.933333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+56.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed Yes14c2,405$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.849746.4%45 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes60c2,266$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.5623639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No38c2,047$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.8913525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes39c1,900$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.121952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6a4…abc9backed No54c1,813$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.28540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed No57c1,769$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.472766.7%18 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+43.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes33c1,699$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.2422347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf9e…0a21backed Yes70c1,587$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.6720%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbae8…ed0cbacked Yes66c1,586$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.81258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes56c1,530$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.082119%4 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec1b…c92fbacked No30c1,501$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.032524%6 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid+34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412b…f117backed No30c1,500$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed No48c1,434$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.997646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d5…2fe6backed Yes70c1,415$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.24366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes42c1,400$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5887728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6edd…2ca1backed Yes75c1,339$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed Yes45c1,326$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.353966.7%26 W · 13 L+10.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+133.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x6495…2884backed No75c1,325$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.12771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7277…6e3fbacked No16c1,220$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+204.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes33c1,150$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.1510137.6%38 W · 63 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed Yes33c1,084$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.128632.6%28 W · 58 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x62f8…7737backed Yes62c1,074$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.094969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+44.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xd785…f5b9backed Yes39c987.5$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes65c957$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.1415155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9f2…b4d7backed Yes51c929.46$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.79922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid+18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1316…c716backed No12c910$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.41822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes43c900$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.66051.7%31 W · 29 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4fea…d383backed Yes8c892.68$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.525922%13 W · 46 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+74.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked No22c892$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.883221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes54c846.97$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.732065%13 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed No39c844.67$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.167038.6%27 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes77c809.47$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.7635519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No35c776.46$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.381,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No4c734.45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.0236527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes45c726.47$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.9828636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5d7…c5afbacked Yes41c724.25$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf0…0245backed Yes62c723.02$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.863438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes44c697.97$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.0896319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes37c697$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.6628320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97c1…3d36backed No19c636.14$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.142045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes11c618.38$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.633859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed Yes34c613.33$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.149426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e3…2df0backed No60c598.3$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.19850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbbc…b977backed Yes69c577.18$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5152…79a0backed Yes60c550.04$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.181822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-53.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0384…df9ebacked Yes56c539.44$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes39c533.22$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.523917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-56%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes62c530.36$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3278030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4440…5f67backed No19c522.29$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.974431.8%14 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…53d1backed Yes59c500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38cd…a557backed Yes41c474.99$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.885147.1%24 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe157…6db1backed No27c427.8$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.891764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2378…a059backed Yes77c393.38$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.42245.5%10 W · 12 L-5.3wins-0.24per pick70cpaid-36%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes57c358.07$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.557838.5%30 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a65…acf4backed Yes40c354.1$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1413050%15 W · 15 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes71c330.98$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.6615238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc0d1…2b32backed No64c327.33$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21fe…da90backed Yes69c324.03$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.982626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbef4…ca74backed Yes65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd592…9ed9backed No44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1683053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34a4…4cc7backed No30c263.08$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.52666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+70.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes20c253.95$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.794645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c5…a164backed Yes77c247.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.94616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef9b…7606backed Yes74c241.78$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.242657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes30c240$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.188847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes74c238.79$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.055928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bd5…8737backed No59c236.58$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…8e16backed Yes61c232.14$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.91822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes62c229.2$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.332154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed No64c218.33$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.224346.5%20 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed Yes67c215.45$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.95851.7%30 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x79e7…f41fbacked No46c214.97$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.543917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes50c214$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1074839.6%19 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes43c213.3$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.938219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa40e…53ddbacked No76c212.3$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.741369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+64.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf22e…9a18backed Yes69c209.98$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-57.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbac0…a602backed Yes41c206.11$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No13c201.16$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.0430319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfbb…dc2bbacked No49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.84247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4341…fe46backed Yes55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d6…0489backed No24c179.13$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.222321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-57.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes64c177.02$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.0237844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.