TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Kash Patel be Trump's FBI director?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$244,656
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$257,968

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,656 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfcb0…c865backed No34c10,000$3,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,387.3715646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e2…a960backed No37c9,942$3,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,686.162347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked No22c8,193$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.487227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No16c6,375$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.3999629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8025…fce2backed No30c6,001$1,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,793.971625%4 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed No5c5,981$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.88828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed Yes74c5,542$4,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,438.273953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+124.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5ec1…467abacked No31c5,496$1,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.871323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed No21c5,276$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.633839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid+30.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes77c5,187$4,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.8711541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes62c4,839$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.712751.9%14 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.18per pick34cpaid+43.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No5c4,363$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.596740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No17c4,317$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.8911848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes70c4,019$2,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.7517225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes70c3,973$2,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.052343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No18c3,910$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70610632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45e8…cc6cbacked Yes78c3,822$2,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.06560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed No0c3,622$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.774438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2286…c31fbacked Yes75c3,104$2,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.51275%9 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No2c2,576$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5111940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No1c2,093$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.722400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1805442.6%23 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.995234.6%18 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed No10c1,852$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.199746.4%45 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No11c1,838$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.4113029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb9…1a1ebacked No1c1,719$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2a9…0b5abacked Yes69c1,626$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.04580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90e2…fa6ebacked Yes62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed No2c1,206$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.213732.4%12 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff7…3328backed No1c1,045$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No4c1,005$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.228134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbed…aa02backed No11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7b…f74ebacked Yes62c839.01$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.212638.5%10 W · 16 L-5.0wins-0.19per pick58cpaid-37.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No5c834.12$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1117713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f8…7737backed Yes67c760$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.774969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+44.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x2cd7…0643backed Yes65c692.48$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.722544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf38b…df47backed No2c681.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.71323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-64.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No2c631.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86a5…5ac2backed No9c600$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512030%6 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33cc…a0b6backed No35c599.96$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.981931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a14…3c37backed Yes67c582.86$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.01850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9dbf…595ebacked No5c548.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed No10c530$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No33c530$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.24938.8%19 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1907473%54 W · 20 L+12.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes67c500$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16613673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xd5be…a613backed Yes73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1351090%9 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.38per pick52cpaid+96.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xeb11…e824backed No15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…d8a2backed Yes70c487.76$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.33560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No31c470.62$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2128636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed No22c450$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992931%9 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No3c444.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8237533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5ec…e23bbacked Yes64c437.1$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.223100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+73.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes80c431.35$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.2741238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d57…bd62backed No33c396.21$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.623435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94d4…aa50backed Yes64c390.63$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x063d…e00fbacked Yes69c362.32$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcab1…b2b1backed No31c355.26$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.071225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-39.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes70c327.84$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.351952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967838.5%30 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf7…7f88backed Yes69c290$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.91464.3%9 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No8c277.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5317633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked No27c250$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.55742.1%24 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6867…25b8backed Yes62c250$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13f4…1c68backed No17c237.72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes64c228.92$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.417041.4%29 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88d7…5762backed No34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.32842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f77…9d8ebacked No32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64200%0 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xff2b…0c88backed No27c199.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e17…f6c6backed Yes62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No9c159.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.381533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d85…4df9backed Yes71c150$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.53268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+46.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2c0e…1411backed Yes69c150$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.51625%4 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf37b…da7abacked No34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+49.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc099…2ea5backed Yes68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.062030%6 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+60.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0eef…cad3backed Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x069f…b749backed No14c138.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97c1…3d36backed Yes73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.992045%9 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c6b…f95ebacked Yes71c134.29$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60f8…32f2backed No37c134$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2450%0 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x59d9…11bcbacked No39c133.5$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.57728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+70.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x757b…af6fbacked No23c133$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf162…ba35backed Yes69c130.43$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.431833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked Yes66c120$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.13953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+42%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe89…a0babacked No19c114$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.663151.6%16 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb732…5462backed Yes69c107.33$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43a4…14cebacked Yes64c100.26$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+261.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-76.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x304a…eacfbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xada8…a347backed Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe900…6cdcbacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144025%10 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04f1…5069backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd63…2ae5backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4485…d7d8backed Yes78c92.07$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e09…c03abacked Yes62c80.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.541752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe094…19a4backed Yes74c78.49$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.591947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25a…7dd5backed Yes64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.131546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22a6…7f0bbacked Yes68c72.68$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.