Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4a2b3d43921a62fd693cbaca54249feec7b52fdcd5c7dd8c809a38179c1cbb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,713,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,632,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,713,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 824 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 60c | 92,342$55,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,819.55 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 25c | 71,458$18,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,038.65 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 74c | 57,021$41,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,040.14 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 43c | 46,098$19,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,824.67 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 65c | 33,051$21,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,451 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 33,023$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.35 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 7c | 28,118$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,948.99 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 3c | 27,820$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.76 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 65c | 27,766$18,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,737.45 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 25,864$2,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,057.89 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 57c | 25,509$14,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,912.27 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 3c | 24,582$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.73 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 28c | 22,490$6,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,356.05 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…f347backed Yes | 41c | 18,259$7,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,486.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 76c | 17,966$13,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,392.83 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 4c | 17,579$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.78 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 9cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed No | 79c | 17,000$13,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,650 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed No | 65c | 16,888$11,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,869.13 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…ced9backed Yes | 11c | 16,846$1,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,789.2 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 15,800$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…a29dbacked Yes | 10c | 14,957$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 39c | 14,779$5,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,783.07 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 3c | 13,593$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.24 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05e4…b365backed Yes | 15c | 13,306$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 50c | 13,000$6,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,488.22 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 12,566$8,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,946.14 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…5459backed Yes | 1c | 11,812$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 42c | 11,493$4,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,867.8 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 69c | 10,082$6,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,086.39 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 58c | 8,391$4,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,489.35 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 56c | 8,282$4,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,680.04 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 50c | 8,215$4,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,067.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Yes | 1c | 8,163$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6e…d642backed Yes | 41c | 7,913$3,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,216.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 17c | 7,653$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.18 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…39f3backed Yes | 45c | 7,593$3,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,415.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 2c | 7,406$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.23 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bde…8c91backed No | 61c | 7,119$4,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,776.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 27c | 6,972$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.1 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 51c | 6,945$3,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,420.42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 7c | 6,902$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.34 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 5c | 6,782$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.8 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…10f2backed Yes | 34c | 6,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd2…0bd8backed No | 65c | 5,916$3,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,041.11 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -7.7wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 22c | 5,909$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.26 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 4c | 5,853$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.1 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,549$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 44c | 5,538$2,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,418.65 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,505$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4121…7499backed Yes | 3c | 5,435$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.27 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -78%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…5e3dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,397$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…20a4backed Yes | 24c | 5,112$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 5c | 5,110$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.92 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…5ccdbacked No | 54c | 5,106$2,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,337.19 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.2wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…51bcbacked Yes | 2c | 5,045$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.03 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…1db2backed Yes | 50c | 5,035$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…aa35backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…2308backed No | 62c | 5,000$3,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.98 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 11c | 4,997$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.84 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed Yes | 53c | 4,883$2,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,569.68 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 40c | 4,805$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,928.7 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +467.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 32c | 4,709$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.69 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…cb9cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,537$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.76 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3201…6634backed Yes | 41c | 4,500$1,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,859.99 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…8e24backed Yes | 3c | 4,466$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…9949backed Yes | 18c | 4,405$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb126…06d0backed Yes | 40c | 4,250$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 19c | 4,241$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.77 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4949…d3b8backed Yes | 55c | 4,198$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,302.1 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 59c | 4,169$2,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.16 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…2697backed Yes | 37c | 4,160$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…212fbacked Yes | 10c | 4,120$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 4,036$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 45c | 4,017$1,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,809.4 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 33c | 4,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3037…3e7ebacked Yes | 42c | 3,960$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 59c | 3,899$2,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.48 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…b119backed Yes | 41c | 3,893$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.2 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf6…fecebacked Yes | 3c | 3,872$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…bb4bbacked Yes | 30c | 3,726$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 11c | 3,669$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 60c | 3,658$2,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.25 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb753…f859backed Yes | 46c | 3,544$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 25c | 3,370$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.72 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 3,337$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…d67bbacked Yes | 35c | 3,333$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 3,233$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 57c | 3,195$1,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.39 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6225…bc21backed Yes | 35c | 3,160$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 2c | 3,149$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…0b32backed No | 70c | 3,147$2,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 53c | 3,124$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.54 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…40fdbacked Yes | 25c | 3,115$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0831…dce1backed Yes | 3c | 3,095$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +232.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 48c | 3,036$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579.79 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…1912backed Yes | 22c | 3,032$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…b5f0backed Yes | 33c | 3,029$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce6…9469backed Yes | 3c | 3,015$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9c…fb00backed No | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.