Us Politics · resolved market
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 between December and June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59e0def959f480e5719ab31951c228891a6e0ff939d5df52220847b653e075b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $371,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $349,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $371,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2929…d0d5backed Yes | 27c | 55,214$15,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,073.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1699…80e2backed No | 73c | 55,214$40,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,073.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x826f…6e3dbacked Yes | 22c | 46,206$10,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,211.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59df…81bdbacked No | 78c | 46,206$35,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,211.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc001…d003backed Yes | 26c | 44,397$11,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,365.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…997bbacked No | 74c | 44,397$33,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,365.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +667.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d3…6a8bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,289$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 22c | 3,673$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.25 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 7c | 2,452$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.44 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…8d02backed Yes | 9c | 1,891$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 17c | 1,563$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.22 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 23c | 1,481$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.38 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 26c | 1,030$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.45 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 939.23$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.97 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 4c | 906.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 12c | 843.76$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 75c | 836.16$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.31 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 22c | 783.86$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.04 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 25c | 667.39$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.18 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…ae8bbacked Yes | 14c | 622.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 618.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ef…3870backed Yes | 25c | 617.16$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab4…13b2backed Yes | 5c | 555$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 15c | 539$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 22c | 427.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…88dabacked Yes | 5c | 425.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…488bbacked Yes | 25c | 407.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc801…5789backed Yes | 10c | 401.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…80c9backed Yes | 10c | 397.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 5c | 390.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…e466backed Yes | 15c | 363$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 30c | 350$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.26 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 18c | 337.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 73c | 312.38$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…3d36backed Yes | 15c | 292.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 29c | 290$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 25c | 287.63$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa407…49dfbacked Yes | 14c | 267$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…c899backed Yes | 12c | 266$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 30c | 250$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 7c | 242.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 10c | 231$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 221.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 14c | 217.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 12c | 198.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…0fedbacked No | 75c | 191.61$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcb…14febacked Yes | 14c | 190.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 10c | 190.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…6c06backed Yes | 6c | 188$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed No | 78c | 185.45$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4e…f3cabacked Yes | 13c | 184$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8970…36b5backed Yes | 26c | 178$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 22c | 170$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 7c | 169.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x297f…6e57backed Yes | 24c | 168.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 17c | 155.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf8…8d46backed Yes | 20c | 149.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +68%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 13c | 140.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 13c | 136$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc396…2c95backed Yes | 13c | 133$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…8a88backed No | 76c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6e…3c1bbacked No | 76c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 12c | 123$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 24c | 120.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…6994backed Yes | 25c | 120.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…47bdbacked No | 75c | 116.91$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…3129backed Yes | 9c | 115.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc354…de11backed No | 76c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 24c | 107.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…18ccbacked No | 76c | 104$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a5…548ebacked Yes | 26c | 102.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb582…c3b6backed Yes | 19c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cd…a557backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…c0c4backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6be…629ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cec…707abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 13c | 97.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…1ee7backed Yes | 29c | 94.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -6.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xff37…049cbacked No | 75c | 91.35$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcded…189abacked Yes | 16c | 90.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1888…4eafbacked Yes | 14c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e226backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…d44ebacked No | 78c | 85.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e18…1044backed Yes | 13c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked Yes | 24c | 81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c9…8959backed No | 75c | 78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66db…abd0backed No | 75c | 78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…3e7fbacked Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 30cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 24c | 71.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc195…5f72backed Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 74c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a06fbacked Yes | 24c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5224…a664backed Yes | 24c | 61.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc20b…2cc0backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 between December and June? this page
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more between December and June? No won
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between December and June? No won
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 between December and June? Yes won
- Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.