TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5224…a664

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Premier League at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT1838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NBA Finals: Thunder vs. Pacers backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.48
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Jalen Johnson win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Jalen Williams win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Zach Edey win NBA Rookie of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Heat vs. Hawksbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$11.26
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Rebounds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Heat vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+212.5%+$34
Warriors vs. Lakersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Rockets vs. Knicksbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Mavericks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+104.1%+$20.82
Rockets vs. Grizzliesbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Hawks vs. Celticsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+334.8%+$56.92
Suns vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Timberwolves vs. Knicksbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST+177.8%+$26.67
Warriors vs. Pistonsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST+117.4%+$16.43
Mavericks vs. Sunsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+104.1%+$15.61
All 18 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+41.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+203%+$21.46
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.45
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+203%+$30.45
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will the Greens be part of the next German government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.9
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$10.65
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.64
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+453.2%+$72.1
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+100%+$37.5
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+94.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Oct 14, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Estonia win on 2025-10-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Luxembourg win on 2025-10-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lyon win on 2025-04-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Bodo/Glimt vs. Lazio end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atletico Madrid beat Barcelona?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+300%+$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$44.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$12.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Sep 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Vikings vs. Ramsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.