TailMyPicks
Market

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump positive favorability on inauguration day?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$327,610
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$321,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,610 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 250 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2753…2683backed No52c24,895$12,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,985.04875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+27%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e61…57d2backed No42c21,000$8,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,1801100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26a4…084ebacked Yes58c10,600$6,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,14810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b6…9b04backed Yes58c10,400$6,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,03210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x521b…db60backed Yes57c9,910$5,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,691.6540%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No41c6,449$2,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,78415646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes6c6,161$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.893859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes16c5,876$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.644522.2%10 W · 35 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-58%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4cd…8c07backed Yes1c5,005$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.242222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x795d…63e7backed No37c4,523$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,857.57728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes8c4,480$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.115635.7%20 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes2c4,241$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.642123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No47c4,232$1,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,247.085349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes61c3,813$2,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,334.0417452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes60c3,766$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,251.328739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes1c3,757$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.052020%4 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes13c3,161$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.644934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd013…94eabacked No59c3,100$1,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+78.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes17c3,026$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.1111347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes46c3,017$1,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.185433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29da…5488backed Yes1c3,010$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aae…c6c4backed No45c2,903$1,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.563253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No38c2,648$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.482825%7 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes71c2,448$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.333658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No56c2,372$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.437041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked No46c2,369$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.082050%10 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba68…ce61backed No56c1,984$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.623100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+74%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80eb…5bfcbacked Yes49c1,978$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.16366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed No47c1,889$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.347728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcf…5681backed Yes1c1,869$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes18c1,840$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.537441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x305c…dc57backed No34c1,829$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.891040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked No44c1,800$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.993030%9 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No43c1,600$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.82744.4%12 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+143.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes7c1,473$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.99142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes2c1,421$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8120%0 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes36c1,203$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.292842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No41c1,107$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.6417544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No22c1,100$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.9911950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes3c1,066$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.939533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes51c1,009$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.8612619.8%25 W · 101 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes58c1,007$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.0516943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x682a…912abacked No47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed Yes62c1,000$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6195644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Yes71c1,000$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7103221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9969…d347backed No48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f76…1421backed Yes52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd96c…7524backed Yes53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc21d…4ed8backed No33c999.97$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.981154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad86…cd10backed No41c919.29$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.23540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes53c911.28$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.094259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd86e…f185backed No42c900$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd996…b6c6backed Yes58c900$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0459…8176backed No42c900$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc983…941abacked Yes58c890$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe564…c737backed Yes60c808.19$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d05…aee5backed No51c782.27$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.773046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c753.4$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.011,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x25da…6772backed Yes70c718.25$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes12c700$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.52119%4 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes16c672.27$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9115924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes60c664.55$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.4316535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No41c611.12$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.746728.4%19 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5515…835bbacked No40c600.8$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+149.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe27a…40a3backed No35c579.42$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.421127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c565.49$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes9c553$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5510324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf038…daa8backed Yes76c549.86$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed52…d049backed Yes68c524.34$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+49.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffdb…411dbacked No67c517.39$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.113161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes15c511$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5213029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8428…25e4backed Yes59c506.66$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4426…387dbacked Yes17c499.97$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No42c452.78$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.378632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d5b…334abacked No33c439$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.211533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes56c438.1$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.348057.5%46 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3656…b4bbbacked Yes11c416.86$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.64450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9a…2c84backed Yes64c414.38$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick68cpaid-51.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes61c411.17$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.6317225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes16c405.1$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.151315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb572…9239backed Yes64c400$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2564339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x613d…d946backed Yes57c395.14$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.63425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+73.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed No33c393.03$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.055922%13 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a7e…36bcbacked No51c384.23$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.78966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No80c376.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.856955.1%38 W · 31 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+8.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9b2…d2bbbacked Yes55c366.2$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa36e…fc56backed Yes46c350$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161120%0 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes14c349.75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.778737.9%33 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76f1…46d6backed Yes18c342.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.931330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed Yes46c342$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.326137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ca…d65ebacked Yes60c333.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed No30c321.82$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.727646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Yes4c320.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb453…c257backed Yes3c313.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes15c308.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2430319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes17c301.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.214820.8%10 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1148847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No45c300$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16515238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f9…35febacked Yes53c283.02$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No42c259$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.222653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.