TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump increase tariffs on China before May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$187,181
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$191,650

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,181 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfa64…7643backed No12c69,013$8,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,281.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No63c2,354$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.6610056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes38c2,344$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.364045%18 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes50c2,311$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.942638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No63c2,142$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,353.8369634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes51c1,878$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.236051.7%31 W · 29 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No60c1,489$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.331553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce6…9f5dbacked No24c1,390$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.01520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-71.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked No70c1,144$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8002055%11 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c96…f26abacked No42c896.67$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.37955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No75c887.78$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.2217452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No63c864.62$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.8337533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No49c641.64$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.0615332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd897…a582backed Yes59c603.26$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.97366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x843a…1aa4backed Yes34c599.99$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.993732.4%12 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x758a…4893backed Yes31c519.41$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.413050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed Yes29c430.09$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.611833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes55c400$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18220446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes28c400$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No55c366.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1156…0febbacked Yes55c364.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.83560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+24.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes20c362.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.776246.8%29 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba74…73a7backed No58c345$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No9c341.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes29c308.85$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.813023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+72.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x73f0…3d28backed Yes50c308.68$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.382015%3 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaba0…29fcbacked No56c308.37$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.652138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No36c304.24$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.671,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes37c299.5$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.2699629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No19c298.13$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5611918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee4d…430abacked Yes54c298.13$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No8c280.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.341,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42a2…2e5fbacked No65c277.06$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.74520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No15c263.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3419435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes38c261$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.82911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-70.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No22c259.9$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.393859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No44c259.41$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.8514819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No16c234.51$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9417713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes37c229.74$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.041330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7cd…126cbacked Yes53c226.22$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-37.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No44c205.43$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3923149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x402a…d1d1backed Yes50c200.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.961942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cf…3349backed No63c200$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1264065%26 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes44c197.39$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.796842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe15e…a4b7backed Yes57c195.59$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…05e9backed No47c190$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.62045%9 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7567…6c48backed Yes56c178.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+55.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc529…4f2cbacked No61c177.37$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No75c175.11$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.187562.7%47 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa736…071dbacked No66c174.44$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+295.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes60c165.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.829831.6%31 W · 67 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No50c160.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8228636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes37c150$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.54042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x304c…7a74backed No40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+56.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No12c149.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.943548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5ac…c8fcbacked Yes39c147.45$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.34850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe424…0d1abacked No45c125.55$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.862352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf422…6743backed Yes60c116.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.674119.5%8 W · 33 L-6.5wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-48.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc280…de71backed No23c106.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.42931%9 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aae…c6c4backed Yes58c100.66$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.163253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645358.5%31 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618544.7%38 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.55944.1%26 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7313…cbbcbacked No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5913145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd641…e37cbacked Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0710…42a2backed No59c89.15$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.614257.1%24 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x216c…1f5bbacked Yes56c89.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4418…8c7dbacked Yes56c88.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3274…67e5backed No52c87.92$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fae…1675backed No63c87.78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes39c85.02$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8619436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes46c80.45$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4656733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf4e…dfafbacked Yes51c73.11$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b03…6367backed No48c72.62$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes56c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.82532%8 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…79fcbacked Yes79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.29475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fdf…8903backed Yes48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+54.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes35c57.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.458847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcf2e…b606backed Yes54c55.64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.64425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-53.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91a4…ec5ebacked Yes36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed Yes58c54$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.681947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9c…1bd6backed Yes56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.571838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x358a…d45fbacked Yes28c53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.162245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba6a…91d1backed Yes58c52.03$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.032951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7737…e497backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.54240.5%17 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x546d…e5cfbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb83b…ebf8backed No61c49.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.493444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7656…5ab4backed No60c49.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.61346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5224…a664backed Yes38c47.37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.37475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+94.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No53c46.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6925241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes32c46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.288741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a43…6f1cbacked Yes68c44.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.121392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick65cpaid+50.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0557…f3a5backed Yes46c43.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.521040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x754e…e92abacked Yes58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ac…cf47backed Yes41c39.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf386…1158backed Yes55c36.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.673171%22 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85da…f604backed Yes38c28.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb97d…b68cbacked Yes53c28.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.211942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0895…9925backed Yes55c27.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.45966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.