Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump increase tariffs on China before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35eec56326ab99a70ba4ba7ef5a52e7812611c7aaff0e9b71277d787c5bf859d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $191,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa64…7643backed No | 12c | 69,013$8,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,281.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 63c | 2,354$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.66 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 38c | 2,344$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.36 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 50c | 2,311$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,157.94 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 63c | 2,142$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.83 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 51c | 1,878$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.23 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 60c | 1,489$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…9f5dbacked No | 24c | 1,390$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked No | 70c | 1,144$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c96…f26abacked No | 42c | 896.67$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 75c | 887.78$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.22 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 63c | 864.62$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.83 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 49c | 641.64$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.06 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…a582backed Yes | 59c | 603.26$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 34c | 599.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.99 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…4893backed Yes | 31c | 519.41$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.41 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed Yes | 29c | 430.09$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.61 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 55c | 400$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 55c | 366.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…0febbacked Yes | 55c | 364.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 20c | 362.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.77 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba74…73a7backed No | 58c | 345$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 341.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes | 29c | 308.85$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.81 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…3d28backed Yes | 50c | 308.68$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.38 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked No | 56c | 308.37$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.65 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 304.24$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.67 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 37c | 299.5$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.26 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 19c | 298.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4d…430abacked Yes | 54c | 298.13$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 280.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked No | 65c | 277.06$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 15c | 263.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 38c | 261$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 22c | 259.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 44c | 259.41$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 16c | 234.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes | 37c | 229.74$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…126cbacked Yes | 53c | 226.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 44c | 205.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 50c | 200.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 44c | 197.39$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.79 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe15e…a4b7backed Yes | 57c | 195.59$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed No | 47c | 190$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…6c48backed Yes | 56c | 178.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc529…4f2cbacked No | 61c | 177.37$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 75c | 175.11$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa736…071dbacked No | 66c | 174.44$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +295.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 60c | 165.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 50c | 160.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304c…7a74backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 12c | 149.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…c8fcbacked Yes | 39c | 147.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked No | 45c | 125.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6743backed Yes | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed No | 23c | 106.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed Yes | 58c | 100.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd641…e37cbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 59c | 89.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216c…1f5bbacked Yes | 56c | 89.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4418…8c7dbacked Yes | 56c | 88.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…67e5backed No | 52c | 87.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fae…1675backed No | 63c | 87.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 39c | 85.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 46c | 80.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4e…dfafbacked Yes | 51c | 73.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…6367backed No | 48c | 72.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…79fcbacked Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdf…8903backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2e…b606backed Yes | 54c | 55.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91a4…ec5ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed Yes | 58c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9c…1bd6backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6a…91d1backed Yes | 58c | 52.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…e497backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x546d…e5cfbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed No | 61c | 49.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…5ab4backed No | 60c | 49.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5224…a664backed Yes | 38c | 47.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 53c | 46.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a43…6f1cbacked Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0557…f3a5backed Yes | 46c | 43.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…e92abacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ac…cf47backed Yes | 41c | 39.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed Yes | 55c | 36.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85da…f604backed Yes | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97d…b68cbacked Yes | 53c | 28.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…9925backed Yes | 55c | 27.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.