TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf386…1158

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
123
Categories scored
27
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Weather, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 53 out of 100; worst MLB at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3171%22 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.1%+$58.16
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+33.5%+$67.09
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$92.6
Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.1%+$26.09
U.S. withdraws from Syria in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$22.43
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$26.58
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27.7%+$4.85
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+112.8%+$56.38
Will Trump cut corporate taxes in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+40.8%+$40.85
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will more than 2.8 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day by November 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+33.3%+$33.33
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+41.8%+$62.69
Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+37.7%+$37.7
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+34.7%+$17.33
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump remove carried interest loophole before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$6.67
Will Trump cut Medicaid before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump create External Revenue Service before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+43.7%+$21.86
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.99
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$14.1
Will Capitol foreign flag ban be signed into law?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$2.5
Will the IRS collect more taxes this year than last?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+31%+$6.19
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+36.6%+$18.3
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+41.3%+$24.8
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$40.68
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.4%+$42.42
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+25%+$25
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$24.63
Will the U.S. abandon Syrian base before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+50.6%+$10.12
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+39.7%+$79.31
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$20.42
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$12.5
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$10.49
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+60.3%+$20.36
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+45.8%+$22.89
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Israel military action on Yemen before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Israel military action on Yemen by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 18 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+26%+$52
Bitcoin more valuable than any company in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$16.67
Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$53.76
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$30.65
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+57.7%+$28.86
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30.7%+$4.7
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+28.6%+$28.59
Will Mikey Madison be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$16.67
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$15.79
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will OpenAI acquire Windsurf before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$26.92
DeepSeek removed from App Store before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump post about Sam Altman by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 18 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+35.5%+$35.5
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+40.5%+$20.24
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+34.5%+$34.53
Canada tariffs on China in effect before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+94.5%+$18.9
Will Canada lower tariffs on the U.S. before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+35.9%+$17.96
Will the Greens win 4+ seats in Australian Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$33.33
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+29.5%+$32.5
Trump tariffs on Canada in effect by May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Nigel Farage out as Leader of Reform before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Panagiotis Pikrammenos be next Greek President?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-45.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick79cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pistons vs. Pacersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+25%+$2.5
Hornets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+25%+$2.5
Will Stephen Curry Return This Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 3 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$56.25
Liverpool wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+32%+$3.52
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump x Xi talk before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+27.3%+$13.67
China-EU trade deal before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$5.16
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump attend F1 Miami GP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$40.91
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Tigers vs. Guardiansbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another Earthquake 7.0 or above in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$78.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+37%+$36.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+33.9%+$33.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+31.3%+$31.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+28.8%+$28.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+27.9%+$27.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Virginia vs. North Carolinabacked Virginia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+25%+$2.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT+25%+$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Florida vs. Houston combine for 142+ points?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.