TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,285,448
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,407,073

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,285,448 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 614 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86eb…a20ebacked Yes24c54,106$12,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,823.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04cc…6213backed No76c54,106$41,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,823.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98b0…1d3fbacked Yes18c46,122$8,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,301.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8378…566fbacked Yes24c42,364$10,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,230.7520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2758…691cbacked Yes8c39,115$3,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,178.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb267…aaa7backed Yes3c36,633$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes10c26,377$2,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,739.9319011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No78c23,594$18,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,123.451435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5dc…d1dfbacked Yes26c22,527$5,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,945.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ee2dbacked Yes16c22,132$3,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,585.81216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-70.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes30c21,718$6,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,441.997238.9%28 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked No79c21,147$16,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,443.69450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb30d…5cf1backed Yes17c14,370$2,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,398.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7799…ad20backed Yes18c13,799$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,514.971833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No78c11,702$9,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550.2645738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes33c10,816$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6005632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x545a…fbb9backed Yes20c8,682$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No76c7,985$6,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,926.77757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes52c7,932$4,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,092.78220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb52d…52dfbacked Yes10c7,881$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaad…69ccbacked No80c7,371$5,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,474.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes24c7,358$1,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,752.321910.5%2 W · 17 L-5.0wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-86.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No58c7,036$4,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,984.027540%30 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x59db…c353backed No76c6,594$5,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes50c6,461$3,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,238.443514.3%5 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-81%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4db6…1d97backed Yes27c6,458$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9529…7c6abacked No77c6,000$4,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.872100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+54.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ca…e8d0backed No78c5,859$4,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.02714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-81.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked No75c5,701$4,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.454641.3%19 W · 27 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe97f…b920backed Yes35c5,546$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,952.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed Yes33c5,101$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.71650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf566…1386backed No70c5,000$3,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.68837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes4c4,998$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.5621713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd04…2e51backed Yes12c4,913$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.11425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c4,894$3,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.6547938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c4,839$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.951,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ac…1eebbacked Yes38c4,682$1,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed No70c4,338$3,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,296.34475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes28c4,327$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.522853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes26c4,289$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+157.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No51c4,160$2,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,037.266328.6%18 W · 45 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+59%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e21…1751backed Yes18c4,082$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.32837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes33c4,072$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3461040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0976…704cbacked Yes25c3,808$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.611050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes33c3,678$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.2225731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes2c3,591$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3811636.2%42 W · 74 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe590…e597backed Yes34c3,559$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.711127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes30c3,473$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.394619.6%9 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-64.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e98…1f51backed No73c3,445$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06cc…0b12backed Yes1c3,445$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes9c3,407$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.3526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda60…826abacked Yes29c3,347$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No53c3,156$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.632548%12 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes2c3,136$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.518311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ff…7840backed Yes24c3,130$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes27c3,100$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaef…3e26backed No66c3,057$2,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…79e6backed No61c2,973$1,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.34633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes22c2,918$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.362110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x496e…f06fbacked Yes46c2,897$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60dd…f4b1backed Yes20c2,851$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes29c2,800$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.9450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8bf…e150backed Yes31c2,668$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid+11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No69c2,665$1,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8202245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4575…9099backed Yes4c2,644$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.31100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x217e…3a4cbacked Yes26c2,576$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No79c2,515$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.114020%8 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes57c2,500$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac72…89d1backed Yes27c2,487$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c04…adafbacked Yes1c2,404$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No75c2,318$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.631181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick48cpaid+124.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x73c8…44c3backed Yes25c2,304$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.27333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes15c2,197$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5f…55ccbacked Yes7c2,196$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.36616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes23c2,195$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.482560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8584…a750backed Yes22c2,172$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.03520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-73.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c3b…3ad8backed No67c2,167$1,461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe5e…835dbacked No77c2,011$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes63c2,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2601872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+42.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes5c1,957$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.532450%12 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…7325backed Yes20c1,927$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c2e…dbbcbacked Yes4c1,917$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes18c1,822$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.3757426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9596…b1e4backed Yes24c1,812$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.271145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No74c1,800$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.52941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+96.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…7f26backed No74c1,786$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.6560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x589a…7c26backed Yes23c1,721$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2884…d0c3backed Yes17c1,595$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.95955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc212…a125backed Yes10c1,574$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.4333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked Yes27c1,571$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.6510144.6%45 W · 56 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes22c1,557$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-65.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No76c1,500$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.98543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6c…864bbacked Yes4c1,475$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c1,471$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.032792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfe0…4c7bbacked Yes24c1,463$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.381346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+62.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0554…1880backed Yes5c1,456$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe45d…9788backed Yes35c1,438$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-62.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa43d…0e39backed Yes56c1,426$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.561163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+33.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes32c1,393$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.536833.8%23 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes32c1,372$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.4511850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.