AI · resolved market
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x642415ca4ea8d6ccdd8133af34cbe4991bc84ad27bb3ab0fa2cf38c6aa20b39d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,285,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,407,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,285,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 614 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86eb…a20ebacked Yes | 24c | 54,106$12,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,823.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04cc…6213backed No | 76c | 54,106$41,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,823.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b0…1d3fbacked Yes | 18c | 46,122$8,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,301.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8378…566fbacked Yes | 24c | 42,364$10,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,230.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2758…691cbacked Yes | 8c | 39,115$3,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,178.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb267…aaa7backed Yes | 3c | 36,633$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 26,377$2,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,739.93 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 78c | 23,594$18,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,123.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…d1dfbacked Yes | 26c | 22,527$5,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,945.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ee2dbacked Yes | 16c | 22,132$3,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,585.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 30c | 21,718$6,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,441.99 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked No | 79c | 21,147$16,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,443.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…5cf1backed Yes | 17c | 14,370$2,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,398.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7799…ad20backed Yes | 18c | 13,799$2,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,514.97 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 11,702$9,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550.26 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 33c | 10,816$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x545a…fbb9backed Yes | 20c | 8,682$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 76c | 7,985$6,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 52c | 7,932$4,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,092.7 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb52d…52dfbacked Yes | 10c | 7,881$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked No | 80c | 7,371$5,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes | 24c | 7,358$1,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,752.32 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 58c | 7,036$4,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,984.02 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed No | 76c | 6,594$5,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 50c | 6,461$3,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,238.44 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4db6…1d97backed Yes | 27c | 6,458$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked No | 77c | 6,000$4,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…e8d0backed No | 78c | 5,859$4,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 75c | 5,701$4,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.45 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe97f…b920backed Yes | 35c | 5,546$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,952.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 33c | 5,101$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…1386backed No | 70c | 5,000$3,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,998$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.56 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…2e51backed Yes | 12c | 4,913$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 4,894$3,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.65 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 4,839$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.95 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…1eebbacked Yes | 38c | 4,682$1,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed No | 70c | 4,338$3,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 28c | 4,327$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.52 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 26c | 4,289$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 51c | 4,160$2,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,037.26 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…1751backed Yes | 18c | 4,082$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 33c | 4,072$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…704cbacked Yes | 25c | 3,808$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 33c | 3,678$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.22 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 2c | 3,591$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…e597backed Yes | 34c | 3,559$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 30c | 3,473$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.39 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…1f51backed No | 73c | 3,445$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06cc…0b12backed Yes | 1c | 3,445$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 9c | 3,407$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.35 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…826abacked Yes | 29c | 3,347$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 53c | 3,156$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497.63 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,136$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ff…7840backed Yes | 24c | 3,130$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 27c | 3,100$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaef…3e26backed No | 66c | 3,057$2,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…79e6backed No | 61c | 2,973$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 22c | 2,918$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.36 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496e…f06fbacked Yes | 46c | 2,897$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…f4b1backed Yes | 20c | 2,851$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 29c | 2,800$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…e150backed Yes | 31c | 2,668$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 69c | 2,665$1,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 4c | 2,644$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…3a4cbacked Yes | 26c | 2,576$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 79c | 2,515$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.11 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 57c | 2,500$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac72…89d1backed Yes | 27c | 2,487$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c04…adafbacked Yes | 1c | 2,404$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 75c | 2,318$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.63 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 48cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…44c3backed Yes | 25c | 2,304$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes | 15c | 2,197$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5f…55ccbacked Yes | 7c | 2,196$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 23c | 2,195$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.48 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…a750backed Yes | 22c | 2,172$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…3ad8backed No | 67c | 2,167$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…835dbacked No | 77c | 2,011$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 5c | 1,957$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…7325backed Yes | 20c | 1,927$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…dbbcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,917$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 1,822$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.37 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed Yes | 24c | 1,812$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 74c | 1,800$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed No | 74c | 1,786$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…7c26backed Yes | 23c | 1,721$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed Yes | 17c | 1,595$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…a125backed Yes | 10c | 1,574$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 27c | 1,571$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.65 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 22c | 1,557$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 76c | 1,500$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.9 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…864bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,475$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,471$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe0…4c7bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,463$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…1880backed Yes | 5c | 1,456$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…9788backed Yes | 35c | 1,438$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…0e39backed Yes | 56c | 1,426$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 32c | 1,393$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.53 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 32c | 1,372$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.45 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.