Us Politics · resolved market
Will the IRS collect more taxes this year than last?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfc991ee9b75c96e4fd09183466f5b030decd21f29c11a02c1754b6ce5196f68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 8,327$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 34c | 7,941$2,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,737.15 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 69c | 3,421$2,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.49 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf501…8852backed Yes | 71c | 3,279$2,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.94 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…7b42backed Yes | 75c | 2,665$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.33 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 22c | 2,622$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.13 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 73c | 2,431$1,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.92 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 26c | 1,971$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.82 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 8c | 1,500$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 72c | 1,317$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.22 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 16c | 1,167$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.93 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1580…9394backed Yes | 76c | 1,156$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 17c | 1,100$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 18c | 1,068$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.87 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 75c | 986$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.04 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 78c | 813.67$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.26 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 72c | 700$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec1…d355backed No | 17c | 639.08$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 31c | 626.12$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.2 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 73c | 564$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.93 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5202…0e82backed No | 3c | 500.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked No | 38c | 500$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…087cbacked Yes | 78c | 471$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…097cbacked No | 24c | 460$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac11…41febacked No | 30c | 375.57$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 73c | 314.48$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 25c | 312.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x109d…f1ddbacked No | 27c | 295.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 27c | 293.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…512dbacked No | 61c | 275.56$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…8921backed No | 34c | 199.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 75c | 198.78$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…e310backed No | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 146.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…e40dbacked No | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…45e7backed No | 14c | 116.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0756…d711backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4b…ac55backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 27c | 84.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 69c | 82.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122d…38f5backed No | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…c908backed Yes | 74c | 76.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 15c | 70.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19de…f1babacked No | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 74c | 68.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79a4…941cbacked No | 26c | 63.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed No | 35c | 57.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 20c | 56.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…1e30backed Yes | 76c | 53.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6279…fb37backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f80…ea2dbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b61…78e8backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 70c | 28.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…1158backed Yes | 76c | 26.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…8512backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8483…a544backed Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.