TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel military action on Yemen by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$265,050
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$208,368

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $265,050 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07cd…21bbbacked No14c51,993$7,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,483.517247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No1c15,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7535347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No7c12,572$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.5821259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No0c11,618$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.623132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86ae…e39ebacked No0c9,719$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked No11c8,380$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.824425%11 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8334…4e9fbacked No3c8,013$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.454628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No12c7,100$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.5933337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcc3…648ebacked No13c5,944$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.86728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf00a…c77cbacked No5c5,344$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2494753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb18…f867backed No15c5,285$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.11757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.39per pick18cpaid+352.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked No13c5,264$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.028037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No7c5,123$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.536726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked No12c4,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4701346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes80c4,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80036750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked No13c3,971$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.628139.5%32 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked No8c3,889$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.915642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed No2c3,838$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9216537%61 W · 104 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No15c3,429$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.469154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No8c3,200$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26410139.6%40 W · 61 L+10.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed No6c3,139$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.8117646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No4c3,020$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.916061.9%99 W · 61 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No16c2,470$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.654742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4648…fc9fbacked No9c2,447$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d7…512abacked No4c2,408$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.63557.1%20 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+39.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8796…5e5abacked No8c2,384$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No14c2,360$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.759955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No15c2,074$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.3347334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No6c1,980$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.183228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a50…ff53backed No13c1,729$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.071233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No6c1,575$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.54045%18 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No4c1,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6028750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed No10c1,428$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.345549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No2c1,233$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0719930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ea…4472backed No7c1,232$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No16c1,231$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.0889617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No14c1,167$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.7327233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed No14c1,150$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16115023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed No13c1,063$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1391952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.2442738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked No15c1,000$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.52347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x312b…cafebacked No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503253.1%17 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6726…eabdbacked No10c974.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No21c835$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.357558.7%44 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed No8c666$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.284129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c83…8a22backed No8c631.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.211255.4%62 W · 50 L+11.3wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No8c613.74$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee2…93fdbacked No39c600$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2342941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No15c593.84$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.913629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No19c550$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.51414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec8…96a5backed No35c530$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.75644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed No21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6015626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No10c499.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No25c499.99$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1243644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c6c…0e79backed No5c477.88$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.05944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0b9…2d8fbacked No10c425.9$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55e…4660backed Yes44c412.17$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.472152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No20c403$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.63923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No13c350$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.58452.4%44 W · 40 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No15c334.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506451.6%33 W · 31 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b13…a72bbacked No8c323.74$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.477321.9%16 W · 57 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbc…c296backed No14c321.43$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2702…0495backed No7c288.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No21c250$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7940939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c9a…1c49backed No12c250$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7be0…4ee8backed No8c235.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-40.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No18c227.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.186637.9%25 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed No14c214.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e1c…90ccbacked No19c211.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.423237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5ce…e5c3backed No13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303551.4%18 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf04…d45bbacked No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x117e…ffecbacked No5c190$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed Yes74c171.38$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.991258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc0a…6fc4backed No55c160$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.43154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddcd…d954backed No14c155.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked No14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.55736.8%21 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed Yes25c149.43$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.572941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aae…cb22backed Yes40c109$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.31145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No20c100.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182015%3 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304010%4 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-66.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1313360.9%81 W · 52 L+18.4wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8e38…1198backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes40c99.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c98.75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.386542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No18c88.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1426616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf386…1158backed No60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501866.7%12 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9587…8a10backed No17c70$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f72…6dc4backed No15c69.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfed5…7472backed No29c68.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No24c67.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4926138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No33c66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed No16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0399…1c59backed No16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.