TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5ee2…93fd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Boxing, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 54 out of 100; worst Music at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST2941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$6.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$91.99
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.16
Iran ballistic missile strike on Israel by Friday? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.6
Another Israel military action on Yemen before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.4
Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$99
Israel military action on Yemen by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$234
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST+63.9%+$15.6
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$27.5
Will Hamas allow IDF to remain in Gaza?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+177.8%+$25.6
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20.5
Assad leaves Syria before 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$76.3
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$171.4
U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$133.13
Iran strike on US military before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will Israeli troops enter Beirut by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$20.6
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$70.77
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT+185.7%+$65
Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT+334.8%+$46.2
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT+372.6%+$89.88
Will Israel target an Iranian oil or gas facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+76.2%+$34.6
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2024, EDT+366.4%+$98.2
Israel military response against Iran today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$42.4
Iran strike on Israel today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$129
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Vietnam in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.4
Will Elon Musk be out as Head of DOGE in Trump's first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$45.6
TikTok on App Store again before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST+108.3%+$41.6
Will Matt Gaetz be Trump's Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$49.6
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$226.8
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$84.01
US out of WHO by Trump's first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$35.7
Will Trump remove FBI director Christopher Wray?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+284.6%+$44.39
Will Mark Zuckerberg attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$33.6
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+81.8%+$27
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+29.7%+$18.32
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+134.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trevvy KO's Oblivion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+46.2%+$90.38
Will Mike Tyson knockout Jake Paul?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+222.6%+$206.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Yoon arrested by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$33.5
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$11.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid beat Borussia Dortmund?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2024, EDT+44.9%+$12.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Global heat increase between 1.28°C and 1.30°C for 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$42.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.