Space · resolved market
SpaceX Starship launch today?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e7e0c60fd518fc0d2d9d2a002d532fab015a3f454b72816911ec965b97d548f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 0c | 22,872$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed No | 2c | 12,735$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 2c | 12,191$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 5c | 9,126$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.84 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 4c | 7,687$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb088…683dbacked No | 5c | 4,148$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…9826backed No | 10c | 3,850$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1f…fcd4backed No | 3c | 3,351$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 4c | 3,190$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 3c | 3,042$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 4c | 2,400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 4c | 2,301$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 11c | 1,226$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +285.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…f310backed No | 9c | 1,170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed No | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace3…c83bbacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed No | 5c | 980.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35da…cb83backed No | 4c | 577.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c2…036cbacked No | 7c | 500.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f6…1a52backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…2851backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…93fdbacked No | 10c | 456.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…bcaabacked No | 5c | 438.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 6c | 425.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0b…87d0backed No | 6c | 394.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed No | 8c | 381.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…001bbacked No | 5c | 301.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 4c | 271.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbe…185cbacked No | 4c | 270.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54bc…89ebbacked No | 4c | 270$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 9c | 242.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed No | 7c | 222.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 9c | 221.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed No | 7c | 215$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…f959backed No | 6c | 214.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…141ebacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe0…507cbacked No | 9c | 165.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5971…bec3backed No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5a…dc2fbacked No | 10c | 123.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +146.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b1…857cbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…5478backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…5961backed No | 11c | 96.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.