TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran ballistic missile strike on Israel by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$189,841
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$211,795

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,841 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3613…79e1backed No47c15,973$7,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,578.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes61c11,771$7,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,610.848617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe7e…c200backed No1c10,971$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.651353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes61c8,234$5,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,210.8637740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed No63c8,000$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,039.982560%15 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked No0c7,128$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.222528%7 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick15cpaid+46%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0301…aa15backed Yes44c6,753$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,753.152832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed No1c6,679$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.772123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No26c6,660$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,755.066253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes47c6,320$2,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,372.1442738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed No1c5,988$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.917413.5%10 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes77c5,266$4,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.532445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e62…d66abacked No56c5,000$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,82020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes65c4,917$3,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,711.4936750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb917…9a73backed No34c4,423$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.1530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes63c3,261$2,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.694742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes34c3,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.987247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x90e0…c12dbacked No71c2,980$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.952040%8 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-39.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22c3…289cbacked No68c2,806$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,895.872842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes65c2,751$1,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.338137%30 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes34c2,599$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.1143212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8196…46c5backed No1c2,338$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e02…b56dbacked No4c2,300$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9f…e9e5backed No1c1,809$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c9b…3e1dbacked Yes56c1,794$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.221346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed No9c1,700$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.992821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-56.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No67c1,668$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.4240433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes31c1,611$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.7514520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes36c1,609$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.686134.4%21 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes36c1,600$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.67142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd9…544abacked No65c1,529$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked No69c1,500$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0351936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8528…d446backed No69c1,500$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.45850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked Yes36c1,500$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.094010%4 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick23cpaid-66.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes37c1,362$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.8613518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed No66c1,226$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.131656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…a71dbacked Yes33c1,213$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.473458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No50c1,174$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.529831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes80c1,029$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.7423525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No67c1,000$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.53748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1d9…4ce3backed No43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc4…da65backed No35c999.98$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9b…7faabacked No61c954.99$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.1240%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b94…951abacked Yes53c950.94$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.942528%7 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e77…cb47backed Yes31c942.52$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.343100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+163.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes76c860.2$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.845933.9%20 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64ad…3050backed Yes54c790.58$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.282227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-55.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf459…a5c8backed Yes53c754.47$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.471643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+65.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes65c746.96$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.488433.3%28 W · 56 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+75.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes74c736.31$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.6322333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes62c700$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.25026%13 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c676.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.621,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed No4c675.27$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.739414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94b0…9d34backed No60c673.06$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.81947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes61c652.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.998143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes55c618.34$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.6726619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes51c610.3$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.655827.6%16 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked Yes33c606.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.069920.2%20 W · 79 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd189…06f4backed No67c581$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.631233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid+31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes74c573.11$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.016439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+94.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9d1…8c4dbacked Yes32c501.08$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3411040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.861526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-49.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1158250%41 W · 41 L+10.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes33c466.57$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.1116832.1%54 W · 114 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d67…4e16backed Yes32c403.49$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.771637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes34c395.33$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.3189617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaab0…1c9cbacked Yes39c386.2$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.21163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+73.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes36c385.54$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.245244.2%23 W · 29 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes33c372.98$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.38037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes43c341.03$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.5633337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12e6…a434backed Yes80c336.88$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.381145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd58…9542backed Yes59c329.35$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.354540%18 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes32c327.31$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.031235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No63c319.69$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9613629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes36c309.74$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.7413746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked No68c300.52$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.6520823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19812333.3%41 W · 82 L+13.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+28.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cb0…f493backed Yes38c265.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.79650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde2b…2d21backed No65c255.84$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4f6c…6909backed No67c250$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43f8…2903backed No66c248.96$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.073033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes61c244.76$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.767233.3%24 W · 48 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d45…97f4backed Yes33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1341758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed No50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015023.3%35 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fa7…37fbbacked No65c193.93$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.581612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-81.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed No62c191.58$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.663737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0168…ab3fbacked No11c179.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.48825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes33c170$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.92548%12 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4600…78aabacked No60c167.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d94…e7fcbacked No71c162.36$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8507…948abacked Yes77c160$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.854528.9%13 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes26c157.53$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3516537%61 W · 104 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes79c155.93$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.751844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69bc…577dbacked No65c153.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002564%16 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5954…2b5fbacked No66c150$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997323.3%17 W · 56 L-7.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-56.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x253f…edf9backed Yes79c149.47$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.391752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a3…2943backed No67c149.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick36cpaid-85.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7956…95ebbacked No69c143.48$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-50.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa22d…ea45backed No66c142.78$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.191020%2 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-71.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.