Middle East · resolved market
Iran ballistic missile strike on Israel by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb320a4841f7eff637ff8ab4adcf0573dd53296b618f14b92ce458b8f75c3cd86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $189,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3613…79e1backed No | 47c | 15,973$7,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,578.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 61c | 11,771$7,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,610.84 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7e…c200backed No | 1c | 10,971$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 61c | 8,234$5,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,210.86 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 63c | 8,000$5,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,039.98 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked No | 0c | 7,128$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…aa15backed Yes | 44c | 6,753$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,753.15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed No | 1c | 6,679$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 26c | 6,660$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.06 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 47c | 6,320$2,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,372.14 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed No | 1c | 5,988$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 77c | 5,266$4,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.53 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…d66abacked No | 56c | 5,000$2,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,820 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 65c | 4,917$3,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.49 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed No | 34c | 4,423$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 63c | 3,261$2,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.69 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,979.98 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked No | 71c | 2,980$2,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,103.95 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22c3…289cbacked No | 68c | 2,806$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.87 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 65c | 2,751$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.33 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 34c | 2,599$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.11 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…46c5backed No | 1c | 2,338$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e02…b56dbacked No | 4c | 2,300$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…e9e5backed No | 1c | 1,809$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9b…3e1dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,794$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed No | 9c | 1,700$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 67c | 1,668$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.42 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,611$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.75 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 36c | 1,609$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.68 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 36c | 1,600$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.6 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked No | 65c | 1,529$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked No | 69c | 1,500$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed No | 69c | 1,500$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,500$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.09 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 37c | 1,362$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.86 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 66c | 1,226$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…a71dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,213$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.47 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 50c | 1,174$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.52 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 80c | 1,029$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.74 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 67c | 1,000$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed No | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…da65backed No | 35c | 999.98$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9b…7faabacked No | 61c | 954.99$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…951abacked Yes | 53c | 950.94$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.94 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed Yes | 31c | 942.52$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 76c | 860.2$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.84 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 54c | 790.58$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.28 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…a5c8backed Yes | 53c | 754.47$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.47 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 65c | 746.96$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.48 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 74c | 736.31$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.63 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes | 62c | 700$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.2 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 676.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 4c | 675.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 60c | 673.06$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 61c | 652.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.99 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 55c | 618.34$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.67 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 51c | 610.3$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.65 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed No | 67c | 581$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.63 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes | 74c | 573.11$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.01 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d1…8c4dbacked Yes | 32c | 501.08$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +10.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 33c | 466.57$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.11 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d67…4e16backed Yes | 32c | 403.49$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.77 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 395.33$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.31 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…1c9cbacked Yes | 39c | 386.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 36c | 385.54$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.24 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 33c | 372.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.3 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 43c | 341.03$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.56 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…a434backed Yes | 80c | 336.88$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd58…9542backed Yes | 59c | 329.35$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.35 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 32c | 327.31$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.03 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 63c | 319.69$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.96 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 36c | 309.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.74 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked No | 68c | 300.52$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.65 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…f493backed Yes | 38c | 265.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…2d21backed No | 65c | 255.84$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6c…6909backed No | 67c | 250$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed No | 66c | 248.96$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.07 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 61c | 244.76$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.76 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…37fbbacked No | 65c | 193.93$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed No | 62c | 191.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.66 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0168…ab3fbacked No | 11c | 179.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 33c | 170$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.9 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4600…78aabacked No | 60c | 167.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…e7fcbacked No | 71c | 162.36$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…948abacked Yes | 77c | 160$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 26c | 157.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.35 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 79c | 155.93$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 65c | 153.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked No | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…edf9backed Yes | 79c | 149.47$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…2943backed No | 67c | 149.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…95ebbacked No | 69c | 143.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…ea45backed No | 66c | 142.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.