AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $340b on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dd77c0435ef5b95e7a8fcc6edbbd18d5a52b432d282fe8842b80a430debff26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 10c | 9,489$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.57 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 21c | 8,028$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.88 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 8c | 6,958$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.37 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 76c | 4,506$3,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a1…ec5dbacked Yes | 31c | 3,200$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,703$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f7…b96ebacked No | 78c | 2,499$1,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 9c | 2,332$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.84 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed No | 78c | 1,593$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 19c | 1,361$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.13 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 23c | 1,246$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.93 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…6d33backed Yes | 15c | 1,217$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 12c | 1,145$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.84 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9137…487cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,007$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 926.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…3a00backed Yes | 16c | 780.87$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 36c | 659.06$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.46 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9f…7b75backed Yes | 14c | 649.36$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 74c | 579.51$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…eeaebacked Yes | 26c | 527$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…8d89backed Yes | 28c | 453.68$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…82bdbacked Yes | 41c | 450.46$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab5…1d6ebacked No | 79c | 416.97$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf856…7373backed Yes | 12c | 379.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 10c | 320$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 303.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 29c | 300.59$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 19c | 300$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18bf…3658backed Yes | 18c | 256.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +261%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…07b3backed Yes | 33c | 226.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…e377backed Yes | 18c | 219.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab09…a67abacked Yes | 26c | 197.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ba…697cbacked Yes | 30c | 195$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 187.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 68c | 184.32$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0027…4418backed Yes | 15c | 183.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 174.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed No | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 9c | 160$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 13c | 156.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…2695backed Yes | 35c | 142.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b03…0298backed Yes | 36c | 139.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 9c | 132.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…ed9abacked Yes | 41c | 121.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 23c | 117.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 20c | 109.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…7557backed Yes | 34c | 92.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 66c | 84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 39c | 83.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca5…4b51backed No | 66c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…38aabacked Yes | 31c | 63.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 26c | 57.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -70%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 36c | 56.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 53.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7974…931fbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…93fdbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774e…c222backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b6…c340backed Yes | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6e…5c3dbacked No | 62c | 36.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4492…6428backed Yes | 44c | 34.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…65b5backed No | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…f43cbacked Yes | 46c | 21.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $340b on April 30?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $290b and $300b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $300b and $310b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $310b and $320b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $320b and $330b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on April 30?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $290b on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.