AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42977e2ad1d97d41ae6ded51217986bd044034708c79f8ae0860ff21bcdd2131
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 13c | 2,436$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 14c | 2,400$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060.51 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,849$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,751.71 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 4c | 1,757$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.02 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 4c | 1,332$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.07 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,239$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +757.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.99 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 7c | 904.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.13 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…b64dbacked Yes | 8c | 900$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked Yes | 5c | 786.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +401.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 30c | 755.32$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.74 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0f…05fdbacked Yes | 67c | 737.24$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 697.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.83 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 7c | 600.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.5 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 580.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked No | 36c | 545.31$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed No | 20c | 459.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b03…0298backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…8d89backed Yes | 29c | 444.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.35 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…eeaebacked Yes | 9c | 418.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.98 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ba…697cbacked Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 6c | 390$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.51 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f7…b96ebacked No | 79c | 354.36$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.65 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9f…7b75backed Yes | 21c | 349.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3b…eea1backed Yes | 3c | 348.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +356.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 6c | 320$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.29 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…82bdbacked Yes | 43c | 315.06$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18bf…3658backed Yes | 14c | 289.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +261%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 8c | 246.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +333.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…ed9abacked Yes | 34c | 208.8$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff38…738dbacked Yes | 57c | 208.58$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db8…5634backed Yes | 78c | 162.08$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…7557backed Yes | 29c | 159.56$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 17c | 151.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 28c | 143.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…948ebacked No | 71c | 140.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc8…bd14backed Yes | 18c | 110.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +451.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 40c | 105$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9780…6255backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked Yes | 24c | 93.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +309.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3145…fcf5backed Yes | 47c | 87.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 30c | 83.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed Yes | 70c | 70.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…6d33backed Yes | 39c | 66.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…18debacked Yes | 29c | 63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6f…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 62.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…81b3backed Yes | 44c | 60.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed Yes | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 46c | 51.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…710ebacked Yes | 30c | 51.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab09…a67abacked Yes | 49c | 37.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…9017backed Yes | 61c | 24.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on April 30?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $290b and $300b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $300b and $310b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $310b and $320b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $320b and $330b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $290b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $340b on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.