AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $290b and $300b on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03c4ee7b09259babccfee2c337214d5f273d69c35849698e307af5240c9a1d67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f7…b96ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,536$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.02 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 11c | 1,980$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.75 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…eeaebacked Yes | 8c | 1,565$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.04 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…8d89backed Yes | 19c | 1,185$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7830…783fbacked Yes | 8c | 947.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x278d…cb84backed Yes | 9c | 815.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…6faebacked Yes | 17c | 761.82$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 11c | 723.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 6c | 528.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 9c | 528.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 6c | 332$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 10c | 320$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4b…5f8bbacked Yes | 11c | 308.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7b…d23fbacked Yes | 6c | 242.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8e…ed5dbacked Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e5…be51backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb15a…ea08backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 7c | 166.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 9c | 141.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 20c | 122$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -70%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $290b and $300b on April 30?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $300b and $310b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $310b and $320b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $320b and $330b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on April 30?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $290b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $340b on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.