AI · resolved market
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $290b on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf5e0951ea80fb9872ad0a942382b0da29d1e74c931f669d576065c7f34be163
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $391,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $384,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d03…31f1backed No | 47c | 45,690$21,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,215.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…177ebacked Yes | 53c | 45,690$24,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,215.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…c7c8backed No | 60c | 33,877$20,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,550.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…2898backed Yes | 40c | 33,877$13,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,550.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf97…5923backed Yes | 39c | 28,544$11,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,132.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb953…0ce9backed No | 61c | 28,544$17,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,132.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…2147backed Yes | 69c | 27,209$18,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,774.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb642…166bbacked No | 31c | 27,209$8,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,774.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +139.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd5…cd21backed Yes | 53c | 26,122$13,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,844.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…f405backed No | 47c | 26,122$12,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,844.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 44c | 6,559$2,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,891.72 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 16c | 4,894$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.12 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed Yes | 51c | 4,082$2,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,096.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 63c | 4,000$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…e2f5backed Yes | 35c | 3,208$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38f7…b96ebacked No | 52c | 2,297$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.07 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked No | 63c | 2,180$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x927e…f159backed No | 44c | 2,100$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 60c | 1,800$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 72c | 1,728$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 62c | 1,435$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.14 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7830…783fbacked Yes | 65c | 1,299$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 30c | 1,184$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,145$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 49c | 1,061$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…948ebacked Yes | 37c | 953.61$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 882.06$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.97 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed No | 28c | 734.64$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…eeaebacked Yes | 57c | 662$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.29 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 66c | 618.57$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.44 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…20d8backed No | 75c | 568.5$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 3c | 555.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a2…033fbacked Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes | 27c | 499.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 45c | 486.5$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.63 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 454.08$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.99 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 449.46$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70bf…2965backed No | 57c | 419.87$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa91c…d9ebbacked Yes | 42c | 347.09$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 28c | 345.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.25 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 54c | 344.01$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.33 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…c93fbacked Yes | 44c | 338.61$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 44c | 320$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.3 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 49c | 288.14$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 23c | 287.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4718…d954backed Yes | 7c | 267.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 24c | 258$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546d…e5cfbacked Yes | 37c | 255.19$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes | 40c | 221.13$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked Yes | 43c | 217.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +401.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…2652backed No | 50c | 214.21$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 61c | 201.31$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…9b15backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 37c | 199.22$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed Yes | 60c | 182.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…9938backed Yes | 24c | 180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…6faebacked No | 66c | 178.15$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 30c | 150.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed Yes | 54c | 148.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…8d31backed Yes | 55c | 140$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 11c | 139.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 40c | 135.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 26c | 130.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…771dbacked No | 39c | 127$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 65c | 121.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8e…ed5dbacked Yes | 38c | 106.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 103.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 45c | 99.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 13c | 98.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 63c | 96.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 21c | 90.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ba…697cbacked No | 51c | 85.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…2f87backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 35c | 82.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…42c4backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffb…7036backed Yes | 52c | 74.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5326…f3efbacked Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked Yes | 70c | 67.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 57c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a4…6fe2backed Yes | 41c | 61.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6f…9c65backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc685…6f2fbacked Yes | 49c | 57.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 57c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…0333backed No | 57c | 52.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…8637backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebac…eecabacked Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…ddb9backed No | 63c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eba…4b55backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…4b3fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc661…47abbacked Yes | 46c | 38.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f0…37adbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343b…c7eebacked Yes | 39c | 35.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…9865backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $290b on April 30?this page
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $290b and $300b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $300b and $310b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $310b and $320b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $320b and $330b on April 30?No won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on April 30?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $340b on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.