TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9f6f…9c65

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NBA, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 58 out of 100; worst NHL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2025, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaevbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
UFC 319: Neal vs. Prates backed Prates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
UFC 319: Cannonier vs. Page backed Page · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$10.13
UFC 319: Elliott vs. Asakurabacked Asakura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckleybacked Buckley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.11
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Maverickbacked Namajunas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT+44.2%+$9.88
UFC Fight Night: Shahbazyan vs. Petroskibacked Petroski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.73
UFC Fight Night: Garbrandt vs. Barcelosbacked Garbrandt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. McGeebacked Chiesa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$5.33
UFC Fight Night: Rowe vs. Loosabacked Loosa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbullbacked Pitbull · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$168.78
Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silvabacked Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$36.93
Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyesbacked Krylov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Dan Ige vs. Sean Woodsonbacked Ige · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$25.54
Pereira vs. Ankalaevbacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
Du Plessis vs. Stricklandbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+49.3%+$7.24
All 16 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+75.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Clippers beat the Nuggets 4-1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$7.02
Timberwolves vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.13
Spurs vs. Warriorsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT+637.5%+$127.45
Thunder vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Spurs vs. Clippersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$575Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$575
Hawks vs. Magicbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$96
Wizards vs. Pacersbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Kings vs. Pistonsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$195
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT+67.8%+$40.4
Bucks vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.03
Pacers vs. Nuggetsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT+300%+$90
Kings vs. Cavaliersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+498%+$152.93
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$40.8
All 15 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.68
Capitals vs. Islandersbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United vs. Manchester City end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+203%+$22.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $290b on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$31.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$8.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lyon win on 2025-04-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.