Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Lyon win on 2025-04-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17618a6e4c1f4e7999c0f14c5d9b74ee519882aeb52376ed5e5a6e3ab1dcb2b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $839,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $804,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $839,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 0c | 427,796$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.8 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…9fd9backed Yes | 0c | 100,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f9…da6bbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd178…6703backed Yes | 21c | 32,334$6,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,748.41 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…ee44backed Yes | 0c | 27,111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4117…88fbbacked Yes | 0c | 23,879$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked No | 79c | 20,000$15,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,200 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 0c | 19,719$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 80c | 16,000$12,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 8c | 6,944$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 78c | 6,930$5,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.45 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Yes | 0c | 6,112$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6f…9c65backed Yes | 0c | 5,063$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed No | 79c | 4,848$3,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.07 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 16c | 4,184$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.29 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 79c | 3,500$2,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.98 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 22c | 3,497$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.9 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b37…c06bbacked Yes | 23c | 3,052$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57be…2bcbbacked Yes | 10c | 2,925$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 11c | 2,691$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.01 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…b10bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 8c | 1,404$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 20c | 1,220$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5c…903dbacked Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…1efabacked Yes | 6c | 824.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1686…e51fbacked Yes | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 78c | 615.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.6 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 20c | 497.11$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 20c | 489.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x716c…65cabacked Yes | 12c | 358$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed No | 80c | 349$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 17c | 336.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…a865backed Yes | 20c | 305$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe634…7a95backed Yes | 8c | 287.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Yes | 17c | 264.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b51…9c96backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…8316backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8c…6449backed Yes | 13c | 228.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb0…12d0backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…2246backed No | 80c | 221.59$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…3d95backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…d9c7backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 140 | 42.1%59 W · 81 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e9…2758backed Yes | 20c | 178.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c53…278abacked Yes | 21c | 166.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed No | 79c | 112.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18e7…111dbacked Yes | 20c | 101.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3a…aad9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…8a9ebacked Yes | 20c | 95.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x097e…cbdfbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…ab30backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…89b7backed Yes | 18c | 61.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd025…1c54backed Yes | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a61…d395backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…a491backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e40…4d57backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f9…65b3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked No | 79c | 36.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lyon win on 2025-04-17?this page
- Will Manchester United vs. Lyon end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.