Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Lyon end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0996e84359a989d3eb10a64ecc0bcd5fc0a570e8ffd45882598fedd52200c452
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked No | 1c | 50,735$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.29 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf496…1094backed No | 77c | 10,002$7,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,701.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…171fbacked Yes | 23c | 9,989$2,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,691.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…6289backed Yes | 64c | 2,900$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 24c | 2,557$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 57c | 1,512$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.66 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 22c | 1,226$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.49 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 33c | 1,213$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.41 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 24c | 1,042$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.67 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 72c | 861.27$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.27 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 76c | 700$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 20c | 509.85$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 23c | 496$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.92 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 22c | 433$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.74 | 153 | 76.5%117 W · 36 L | +37.4wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…9bd4backed Yes | 80c | 405$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +237.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed No | 76c | 336.03$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.38 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…3d95backed Yes | 24c | 333.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 76c | 272.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.64 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 76c | 249.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 140 | 42.1%59 W · 81 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8773…302fbacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked No | 75c | 204.8$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | 0%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…10a0backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 24c | 145.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.83 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked No | 76c | 102.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…377abacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb0…12d0backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…2b37backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 36cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3180…2634backed Yes | 24c | 49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…cd00backed Yes | 25c | 41.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a67…6095backed Yes | 69c | 18.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Lyon end in a draw?this page
- Will Lyon win on 2025-04-17?No won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.