MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aaff28bb5f8e5e3f7cca576021e08e7790485788b426b9aaa02d819a296373e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 5,478$3,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,414.91 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Washington Nationals | 42c | 3,150$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.1 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 2,876$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.76 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 2,500$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Washington Nationals | 43c | 2,228$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.49 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 1,842$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.69 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…6c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 1,317$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.99 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Washington Nationals | 27c | 1,288$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 1,273$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.01 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd58e…651abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 1,212$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.21 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 1,180$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.61 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Washington Nationals | 43c | 1,158$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.35 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 934.24$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.38 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 671.96$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.38 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Washington Nationals | 31c | 600$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 580$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Washington Nationals | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Washington Nationals | 43c | 307.69$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.75 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 266.21$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.47 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 262$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.04 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…27c9backed Washington Nationals | 29c | 212.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 127$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 110.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 58.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 37.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 70c | 28.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6f…9c65backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 19.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.