TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Pereira vs. Ankalaev

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ankalaevof Pereira, Ankalaev
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,734,048
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,761,260

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,734,048 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 902 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ff0…46e3backed Pereira52c371,127$194,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194,222.163847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b0e…78ddbacked Ankalaev48c296,999$142,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154,159.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Ankalaev44c246,225$107,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139,014.477853.8%42 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5735…f1f7backed Pereira52c107,924$56,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,485.581154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2b…e11abacked Pereira53c105,779$56,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,131333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2b…27a9backed Ankalaev48c78,830$38,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,818.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Ankalaev48c76,361$36,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,557.1635253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Ankalaev51c66,010$33,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,174.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b48…55a1backed Ankalaev56c61,495$34,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,827.55757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3503…b8babacked Ankalaev49c51,000$24,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,0102653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bed…f347backed Pereira51c50,979$26,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,238.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00e2…d56abacked Ankalaev48c49,647$23,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,816.23475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+53%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Ankalaev47c47,211$22,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,885.31546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69ac…7b99backed Pereira52c41,770$21,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,720.52862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fc…34b6backed Ankalaev49c40,760$19,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,787.551637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecdf…6c07backed Pereira52c38,043$19,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,768.331353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed Pereira51c33,040$16,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,798.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pereira54c31,110$16,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,759.954040%16 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Pereira51c29,666$15,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,088.663250%16 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Ankalaev50c29,085$14,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,542.5910542.9%45 W · 60 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Ankalaev47c27,524$12,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,613.8414857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Ankalaev49c25,879$12,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,257.1616049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Ankalaev47c24,000$11,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,679.93943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Pereira52c23,166$12,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,021.7213039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3eb…e855backed Ankalaev48c22,704$10,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,810.022040%8 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Ankalaev49c20,000$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,199.98757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900d…2961backed Pereira51c17,166$8,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,754.4330%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6130…144abacked Ankalaev47c15,000$7,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,987.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe505…d18bbacked Ankalaev49c13,902$6,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,058.83441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Ankalaev51c12,478$6,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,103.136050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Ankalaev46c12,476$5,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,702.6822259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Ankalaev50c11,444$5,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,742.4912134.7%42 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Pereira52c11,355$5,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,904.791643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72f3…ba51backed Pereira52c10,905$5,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,720.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5642…e859backed Ankalaev50c10,876$5,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,453.49540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x45d0…de55backed Pereira51c10,820$5,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,518.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd780…b355backed Pereira51c10,583$5,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,397.16742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73cb…b0d0backed Pereira50c10,174$5,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,087.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xace4…bd19backed Pereira50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003959%23 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Ankalaev48c9,866$4,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,166.2223537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b09…0175backed Pereira51c9,804$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x242e…ee63backed Pereira53c9,715$5,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,134.551346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f96…56c1backed Pereira51c9,710$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-40.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef38…ae8cbacked Ankalaev49c9,569$4,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,839.846453.1%34 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0344…a65ebacked Pereira53c9,426$4,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,995.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Pereira54c9,376$5,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,023.713650%68 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddca…3148backed Pereira53c9,154$4,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,896.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Pereira51c9,115$4,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,667.571118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick42cpaid-54.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b13…39d3backed Ankalaev48c9,100$4,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,731.943455.9%19 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+25.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Pereira51c8,839$4,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,507.892642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x476a…76bdbacked Ankalaev51c8,412$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,112.096262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+24.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Pereira51c8,406$4,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,305.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Ankalaev53c8,307$4,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,931.0853956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x863f…8775backed Pereira44c8,276$3,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,610.172657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x06d0…254fbacked Pereira53c8,110$4,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,303.44161%25 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Pereira51c8,048$4,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,134.9835826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5faf…27bbbacked Ankalaev49c7,518$3,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,834.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Pereira68c7,353$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aca…8b98backed Pereira53c7,234$3,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,833.941637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Pereira51c7,150$3,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,637.64151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb010…b243backed Ankalaev50c6,975$3,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,514.541258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ankalaev47c6,738$3,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,578.7637152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27d2…a66cbacked Pereira59c6,612$3,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,875.67862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0c…ca7ebacked Pereira52c6,440$3,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,364.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x982b…983cbacked Pereira51c6,355$3,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,241.192454.2%13 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3291…e502backed Pereira51c6,200$3,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1621752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Pereira51c6,200$3,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,157.7712159.5%72 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37d8…b6ddbacked Pereira52c6,192$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,200520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-64.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f41…8d50backed Pereira51c6,191$3,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,172.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5cd…ef89backed Pereira51c6,163$3,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,146.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Pereira51c5,540$2,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,829.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+76.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f74…64f1backed Ankalaev49c5,473$2,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,790.31850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Pereira41c5,250$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160.186035%21 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Ankalaev47c5,064$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,694.5621554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x697f…8705backed Pereira50c5,035$2,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,517.7520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Pereira52c5,000$2,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60540%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1772…24ebbacked Pereira53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,650250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Ankalaev48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.953557.1%20 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9353…ffe6backed Pereira52c4,612$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,39020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Ankalaev58c4,512$2,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.842751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Ankalaev51c4,399$2,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.467233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Ankalaev49c4,369$2,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,228.131758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Ankalaev50c4,164$2,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.47742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x064d…a0e4backed Ankalaev49c4,158$2,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,120.57944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6e9…a868backed Ankalaev48c4,105$1,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,134.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+71%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fb…ab4dbacked Pereira54c4,046$2,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,179.871030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-39%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Pereira19c4,028$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.411952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe44b…4982backed Pereira51c3,887$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick61cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cf5…5a81backed Ankalaev50c3,859$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.37520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Pereira51c3,710$1,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,902.284953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa414…d03dbacked Pereira52c3,685$1,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,911.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Ankalaev47c3,582$1,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,888.0511540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Pereira52c3,455$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.854156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d4…9f1abacked Pereira52c3,406$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.77955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Pereira53c3,398$1,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.7424356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5874…421dbacked Pereira52c3,288$1,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Ankalaev49c3,179$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,625.0125251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Ankalaev49c3,036$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,548.461250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Pereira51c3,000$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5151838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Ankalaev49c3,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5406349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.